Analyzing President Trump’s Impact on the Republican Party in National Primaries
President Donald Trump has maintained a strong influence over the Republican primaries, successfully supporting candidates in the 2026 primary season. Observers, like Joe Concha, have noted that the party seems to have transformed into “the MAGA party.” For instance, former Senator John Cornyn lost the Texas primary to Ken Paxton, a Trump supporter, highlighting Trump’s continued sway.
Trump’s influence will be further evaluated in Arizona’s primary election on Tuesday. His endorsements in critical races, particularly in swing districts, have the potential to shape the midterm contest for the House majority and control of the governor’s office.
In the gubernatorial race, Trump is backing Rep. Andy Biggs, a former House Freedom Caucus chairman, who aims to challenge Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs this November. Biggs is also supported by the conservative group Turning Point USA, making him the frontrunner among several candidates, including long-serving Republican Rep. David Schweikert and businessman Ken Miceli.
The winner of this race will take on Governor Hobbs, who narrowly defeated the Republican candidate Kari Lake in the previous election and faces no opponents for her renomination.
Meanwhile, the fight for the Republican attorney general nomination is heating up between state Senate President Warren Petersen and military prosecutor Rodney Glassman, both vying to challenge Democratic incumbent Chris Mays.
Trump is also endorsing former Arizona Cardinals player Jay Feely in the race to succeed Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.
In another rematch, former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods and former state Rep. Amish Shah are contesting for the Democratic nomination. Shah won their previous encounter in 2024. Galan-Woods, once a Republican, has garnered significant support from top Democrats and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, Trump is supporting former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is facing allegations made by opponent Daniel Keenan regarding misconduct. Despite the controversy, Trump’s endorsement remains firm following an investigation that found no criminal wrongdoing against Lamb.
Trump’s influence was evident in earlier primaries this spring and summer where he successfully challenged incumbents in states like Indiana, Kentucky, and Texas, as well as in Louisiana.
However, his influence faced a setback in June when his late endorsement of Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra didn’t lead to a primary win. Feenstra was narrowly defeated by a candidate backed by the powerful conservative group, Turning Point USA.
In recent runoffs, Trump-backed candidates have faced challenges. For example, in Georgia and Alabama, he lost against wealthy opponents. Yet, in upstate New York, his endorsement helped first-time candidate Anthony Constantino defeat a long-time party member.
In South Carolina, Trump also endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evett just before a crucial runoff and provided support for Attorney General Alan Wilson, who won decisively. Moreover, in Louisiana, Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow emerged victorious in a runoff against a former senator who had previously voted to convict Trump in his impeachment trial.
