President Trump’s recent nomination of Eji Antoni to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is drawing attention, especially as it marks a departure from previous appointments, prompting scrutiny among economists.
Traditionally, BLS commissioners have been seasoned academics or long-time civil servants with extensive backgrounds in economics and statistics. In contrast, Antoni is a known critic and conservative advocate, raising alarms about the potential politicization of crucial economic data, especially as businesses and governments rely heavily on the BLS’s findings.
“EJ Antoni is entirely unqualified to be a BLS commissioner,” remarked Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard with ties to the Obama administration, on social media. “He’s an extremist and lacks relevant experience.”
Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Stanweger echoed these sentiments, emphasizing Antoni’s partisanship and lack of qualifications in a statement to the Washington Post.
Who is EJ Antoni?
Antoni has been serving as the Chief Economist at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for the Federal Budget for just four months. The Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank, has been at the forefront of various conservative policy initiatives, including the controversial Project 2025 that targets Washington’s “permanent political class.” Antoni previously held multiple research fellowships at the Heritage Foundation and with the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, led by billionaire Steve Forbes.
In 2020, he completed his PhD dissertation on “supply-side economics,” a conservative policy approach that gained traction in the 1980s. Aside from roles as a community college aide and an instructor at Northern Illinois University, Antoni lacks extensive academic experience compared to his predecessor, who had decades of experience at the Census Bureau and the New York Federal Reserve.
Antoni tends to make frequent appearances on conservative media outlets. He recently stirred discussions about the BLS’s recent employment report, emphasizing gains for native-born Americans during a podcast with Stephen Bannon.
“There was some positive news in the report,” Antoni stated. “All net employment growth over the past year has been for native-born Americans.”
The Heritage Foundation did not respond to requests for comments from Antoni.
Pushback from Economists
Many economists have been vocal about their concerns regarding Antoni’s qualifications. One economist from the University of Wisconsin rebutted one of Antoni’s recent research papers, claiming the results were not replicable and contained fundamental statistical errors.
Alan Cole, another economist with a conservative tax foundation, labeled that paper “stellar,” but acknowledged “the surprising errors” made it difficult to take seriously.
Following a disappointing employment report showing only 106,000 jobs added since May, Trump criticized government agencies for allegedly manipulating data, which many economists dismissed as unfounded. “The unreasonable dismissal of Dr. Erica Mantelfer… sets a troubling precedent and undermines the mission of the department,” stated William Beach, a previous Trump appointee at the BLS.
Concerns for Senate Confirmation
Antoni is likely to be confirmed by the GOP-led Senate after his upcoming appearance before the Senate’s Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions. However, critics are working to garner support against his nomination from committee members.
BLS Friends, an organization led by Beach and former BLS chief Erika Groshen, issued a statement highlighting the contentious nature of Antoni’s nomination.
“BLS is now facing additional challenges due to the controversial debate surrounding Dr. EJ Antoni’s appointment,” they noted.
Groshen expressed hope for a thorough nomination process, emphasizing the committee’s pivotal role at this time.
The Hill reached out to Republican committee members regarding Antoni’s credentials, but most did not respond. A representative for Senator Susan Collins indicated there would be no comments prior to the hearing.
Concerns Over Politicized Labor Data
Antoni has proposed significant changes to BLS data releases, including shifting from monthly to quarterly reports. He argues that while quarterly data may be less timely, it would be more precise. He previously told Fox News, “BLS should pause the publication of monthly job reports; they may be more accurate but are not timely, thus compromising quarterly data accuracy.”
Former BLS chiefs have noted that certain existing regulations could help prevent politicization of data. “Violation of these standards is unusual and suggests underlying issues,” Groshen remarked.
In earlier podcast comments, Antoni indicated that current data revision issues were due to previous “incompetent” leadership. He added that these weren’t unique to the Trump administration.
Challenges with BLS Data
The downward revision of the July employment report, which triggered Mantelfer’s dismissal, primarily resulted from delays in educational employment data reporting from state and local governments, a normal occurrence for BLS operations, according to current and former employees.
Inevitably, the pandemic has impeded survey response rates, impacting data reliability, as seen across various countries. “This isn’t just a failure of the BLS; it’s a global issue,” Groshen pointed out.
She cautioned that the economy cannot afford further neglect of these challenges, concluding, “There’s no easy solution; the search for one has been ongoing for a long time.”
For quite some time, economists have expressed discontent about declining survey response rates. “It’s almost an Orwellian twist with the [U.S. employment report]; it can often convey the opposite of what it truly means,” remarked UBS economist Paul Donovan, highlighting the disparity between household and employer surveys, both suffering from low response rates.
