With Election Day just weeks away, pollster Nate Silver's predictive model shows former President Trump with a narrow lead over Vice President Harris.
The race remains fundamentally close, but a model updated Thursday afternoon shows Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by just over 0.5 percentage points, 50.2% to 49.5%.
“This is the first time since September 19 that Trump has a lead in our model, no matter how nominal.” Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin site.
The same political forecaster pointed out that the day before, Ms Harris was leading President Trump by about 1 point, 50.3% to 49.4%.
Silver wrote that the former president regained momentum with “several good polls” entered into the database Thursday, including a 2-point lead in the race. fox news poll And it led the way in Georgia's research.
Harris took the lead in Silver's polling model nearly a month ago. Neither candidate has had a significant lead or deficit since participating in the presidential debate on September 10, but Harris has had the upper hand with strong performances in five battleground states.
Still, Silver warned in September that things could turn around by Election Day. He shared the same message in Thursday's post.
“There's a good chance the lead will continue to go back and forth, similar to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter,” he wrote.
Harris was riding high just a few months ago. She quickly gained ground over Trump both nationally and in battleground states after winning President Biden's endorsement when he withdrew from the race and became the Democratic nominee at the party's convention.
But recent polls show that energy has leveled off in the final weeks of the election, with Trump's approval ratings rising across the country and in battleground states.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk's polling index, Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by 2.7 points, with approval rating 49.8% to 47.1%.
“I have never seen an election where the odds were more evenly split, and probably never will,” Silver wrote last week, adding that the race could remain close until Election Day. said that it was high.
