There’s nothing worse in baseball than watching a high-flying home run ball go foul. That summed up the greatest speech of Donald Trump’s life. It was a chance for the former president to destroy any chance of a Democratic victory. Instead, he gave Democrats hope.
Trump’s support started out very strong. He was doing exactly what he needed to do: showing that he wasn’t the big bad wolf Democrats portrayed him to be. His strength in sharing his near-death experience gave him vulnerability and humility. His message of unity was exactly what voters wanted. I hate Trump and Joe Biden I want to hear.
And then the wheels started to come off.
It was a little tricky at first. He soon The charges against him And he declared himself to be a savior of democracy, not a threat to it. That’s not so bad, because most voters are Democrats. A hypocritical and questionable crusader For Democracy. Trump also uses humor, which is one of his underrated strengths.
But this wasn’t a detour; it was a new path for Trump. Instead of speaking to a television or streaming audience, Trump spoke to a crowd in person. The speech turned into a classic Trump rally, a barrage of criticism, hyperbole and vague promises. He kept going in circles, and no one knew when he was going to stop.
Trump has failed to deliver on any real policy. He’s going to cut taxes, pay down the debt, stop inflation, and create the best economy in history. Who knows. On immigration, crime, and national security, his only strategy is to take a tough stance.
At one point, the former president Actually said, “We’re going to get a bunch of different things done.” That sums it all up. It’s simply not good enough for reluctant Trump supporters, undecideds, or wavering Biden supporters.
One of the worst hits of the night was talking at length about “the right to try” without explaining what it was (the use of experimental drugs in emergency situations) – forcing the audience to act like detectives figuring out what you mean is never a good idea.
He criticized El Salvador’s President Najib Bukele for his policy of not sending criminals to the United States. In a Salvadoran prisonBukele is a hero to conservatives. 85 percent — Trump should take advice from him.
He claimed that illegal immigrants are taking over 107 percent of our jobs. What? What on earth is Trump’s Hannibal Lecter fetish?
Buried in the speech were several points of attack: He accused the leadership of the United Auto Workers of betraying their members on electric cars. Trump promised that the Biden administration would redirect trillions of dollars from the Green New Deal. I hardly used it. (Though he missed the opportunity to criticize their incompetence.) His criticism of Afghanistan was strong.
But Trump’s strengths were lost in a quagmire of catchphrases and rhetoric. The speech was a momentum killer and a colossal missed opportunity.
Where do we go from here?
It’s hard to imagine a more favorable outcome for a presidential candidate, with his opponent suffering a cognitive breakdown in front of tens of millions of people and his party on the verge of collapse. Open Rebellion he Failed to reassure them And you literally Dodging BulletsHowever, Trump’s approval rating in the polls has only increased slightly.
In Real Clear Politics As of July 18, Trump’s approval rating was 47.5%, close to his all-time high, but he has yet to surpass the 50% mark. Biden’s approval rating has risen slightly from his lowest point of 43.8% immediately after the debate to 44.7% today. 7 Battleground StatesTrump is leading in every state but has yet to get above 50%. His highest share of the vote was in Pennsylvania, where he received just under 48%.
Latest YouGov The poll is similar to most others: Biden and Trump are both unpopular, with the president at an all-time low. RCP’s favorability average is Trump Defeat 12 points. Biden Less than 40 percent His approval rating was down by more than 17 points.
However, it appears that it is a matter of “when” and not “if” that Biden will drop out as the presidential candidate and be replaced by Vice President Harris.
Switching gears
It’s easy to write off Harris when you look at her personal poll numbers. But she Mainly tracking BidenThat’s understandable, and many of the polls are not very helpful. The open question is, what will Harris do as the candidate? Will she break with Biden on an issue that hurts him? Will she have a choice? Political Skills To do that?
Biden’s recent bad press has left many in the public wondering if his staff Hiding His decline and Reports Harris maintains that aides and family insulate him from reality, but he has some leeway in deniability when it comes to the administration’s problems.
Just as important, Harris has the opportunity to change the tone of the race and adopt a more unified, positive persona that can appeal to voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — voters, as we all know, are the ones who decide whether or not a race is won.
This is a big unknown, but Trump and his team should assume the worst — that Harris can make the necessary pivots and follow through. Trump’s own stumbles should encourage the Harris team.
Trump hasn’t learned anything
This is how a 78-year-old man changes. For about 15 minutes, the new Trump looked like a big winner. But the old Trump is back and not going anywhere. Trump’s lack of discipline and Unwilling to accept advice continues to bother him.
What Trump doesn’t understand, or doesn’t want to admit, is that his popularity surge is entirely the result of Biden’s incompetence. Trump led in key battleground states this fall, but Increase in illegal immigration And that Hamas attacks on IsraelTrump was encouraged. By inflationThe debate was a disaster for Biden. The assassination attempt, to a large extent, Secret Service IncompetenceIt will be led by a Biden appointee.
Trump is leading not because of anything he has done, but simply because he is. Trump and his campaign have banked on a string of bad news stories about Biden, but that’s not how you win an election.
Trump finally got a chance to bat last night, but he fouled off.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
