Population Trends and Fertility Rates

There’s a noticeable shift in how many kids people are having these days.

Demographics play a crucial role in shaping the future. Times have indeed changed; concerns range from overpopulation to declining birth rates. The reality is, the birth rate is dropping.

It’s hard to accept, but perhaps we’ve lost our faith. Our society has certainly taken a different turn.

It’s relatively straightforward. For a population to stay stable, women need to average at least 2.1 children—this accounts for those who don’t survive to adulthood.

Let’s be clear here: I mean every single woman. Sure, some women choose not to have kids, but typically, there are others who do. We really seem to shy away from facing this reality. For every woman without children, there need to be two who have more, or at least one with three. It’s not pretty, but that’s how math works.

I know this isn’t a popular stance, and mentioning it might rub some the wrong way. Feminists might not appreciate this truth, but it’s worth considering.

So, what’s the situation? Consider this: last year, fertility rates in the U.S. dropped to 1.62 children per woman. With countries around the world also seeing declines, we’re not alone in this.

To provide some context, take a look at these other countries:

• UK: 1.53
• Hungary: 1.5
• Switzerland: 1.44
• Greece: 1.34
• Chile: 1.17
• China: 1.02
• Singapore: 0.97
• Korea: 0.75

Yes, the global population is still on the rise, but that’s mostly due to people living longer. Despite all the tech advancements aimed at extending life, people still ultimately pass away. Eventually, when the birth rates drop far enough, the population will decline sharply.

For some, this decline might seem like good news—especially if they’re not fond of children. However, it poses significant risks to social welfare, technological progress, and even happiness.

Let’s face it: relying on Social Security or retirement savings won’t fill the void that children do. Young families typically drive consumption and innovation. With fewer children, we could be looking at economic stagnation.

Of course, there are always skeptics. Some folks like to think that AI and robots can take over those roles. But even if one of the biggest names in tech, Elon Musk, is having numerous kids, the notion of him being a perfect dad has its complexities. He might have the resources to care for them, but there’s a growing consensus about the importance of parental roles in child development.

So, what can be done about this? Recently, there was a proposal from the Trump administration suggesting a $5,000 bonus for every newborn. But really? A 2017 report estimated raising a child until age 17 costs an eye-watering $233,610. Kids are undeniably expensive.

The U.S. isn’t the first country to try to boost birth rates; others like Hungary and South Korea have implemented similar measures for a while. But do such incentives actually work? The evidence points to no—it just hasn’t made a significant difference in those places.

But why is that? Some wonder if environmental factors or even sperm counts are to blame. While toxins certainly play a role, the reality is that modern societal norms are perhaps the strongest influence. In our current world, many people aren’t marrying or having kids as often as previous generations did.

Let’s be candid here: people don’t have kids because of financial incentives, and a decline in fertility isn’t strictly due to reproductive health. It’s tough to admit, but really, our society has lost its spiritual grounding.

Many secularists recognize this but often feel uncomfortable with it. Sociologist Eric Kaufman’s 2011 book poses a thought-provoking question about the intersection of religion and demography. It didn’t gain significant traction not because it’s wrong—but perhaps because it hits too close to home.

Kaufman’s point is clear: religious individuals tend to have more children because they view life as meaningful. In modern society, many dismiss religious beliefs as mere preferences, focusing instead on tangible outcomes. However, when beliefs are genuinely held, they really do impact reality.

Religious convictions aren’t merely about personal satisfaction—they stem from a belief in truth.

Christianity, while not the sole incentive for childbirth, has consistently encouraged family growth. Yet, more liberal churches tend to shy away from these values, and some openly oppose traditional family structures. Unfortunately, those congregations are facing decline.

I’m fortunate to be part of a church in a relatively liberal state that still has many large families. Personally, I estimate the birth rate in my community averages around four children per woman. Many fathers are actively engaged in parenting, which contributes positively to family life.

This isn’t a unique situation; during my travels, I observe this trend in many churches across the nation. They foster a belief that children are a precious gift.

Of course, my church isn’t perfect and we aren’t in an insular environment. My wife and I come from backgrounds rich in academia and art, which often leads to differing lifestyles. It’s interesting to note that many of our childless relatives seem to be somewhat discontent, attempting to fulfill their lives through personal pursuits. Yet, they seem to struggle—and that’s apparent.

The future certainly doesn’t belong to them, and frankly, that doesn’t seem to concern them much. Progressives tend to focus on the present rather than build for tomorrow, unlike traditionally religious folks who invest in the future.

If demographics truly shape our world, then it seems that belief and faith hold the key to inheritance.