At the end of the Cold War, a global consensus was formed. As the world's only superpower, the United States is responsible for ensuring international peace and security while actively promoting free democracy and human rights around the world.
But the post-Cold War consensus is dead, as world leaders discovered at the Munich Security Conference this weekend.
With that end, an unprecedented set of new challenges currently faces both the US and our allies.
These challenges are not as serious as Ukraine. As a microcosm of American hideouts threatening to overturn the US-led world order, the “Trump 2.0” approach to Ukraine is rapidly creating a world that no longer relies on American leadership.
Last week, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and reportedly said that Ukrainian President Voldy Zelensky's three-year period of time, despite the unlikely possibility of lasting peace. He presented suggestions to end the war.
According to the report, statement From Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegses – Trump is calling for a peace agreement that requires Ukraine to give away about 20% of its country to Russia, granting access to 50% of US rare earth deposits and NATO I refrain from wanting to participate.
Furthermore, Hegses made it fully clear that the US military would not be involved in international peacekeeping forces. I said Europe will not play a role in peace negotiations.
Driving points home, Heggs He told European defence chiefs “The clear strategic reality prevents the United States from focusing primarily on Europe,” and Ukraine's return to its pre-2014 border was “unrealistic.”
The administration's efforts to end America's role as a security guarantor in Europe Fraying The relationship between the US and European allies is an important theme of the Munich Conference.
Certainly after Vice President JD Vance caveat In a speech at the Munich security conference, European leader Friedrich Merz (probably the next Prime Minister of Germany), said “disagreements between the US and Europe have a whole new quality.”
All across the continent, European leaders received messages.
Ukrainian President Zelensky I said With the days of European guaranteed American support over, the Munich Conference is over, and French President Macron is reportedly seeking a summit to grasp the next steps in Europe without American leaders .
Trump's call for awakening to Europe – they must stand on their own feet and can no longer outsource their safety to the US – may be considered an insult, but Europeans They take great responsibility for the position they are in.
For decades, European governments have refused to make decisions about how to deal with their national security. They shouldn't have fallen into fantasy about Trump's intentions.
They should not be surprised when Vance denounced Europe's constant crackdown. As Wall Street Journal The editorial committee explained Vance's speech. “The subtext is that if Europeans expect Americans to protect Europe for democracy, Europe must be recognisably democratic.”
Similarly, it is not entirely wrong for Trump to realize that the US will no longer wait for Europe to make up for its mind in Ukraine. It definitely got worse as the Biden administration wasn't as good as it provided Ukraine, Germany, France and the UK and slowly aid to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, for now, Trump 2.0's foreign policy raises legitimate questions about the future of Europe and NATO. And in a rapidly increasingly multipolar world, we are questioning the role of American alliances and our commitment to their relationships.
The “America First” foreign policy exacerbates the military and economic vulnerabilities of Europe, opening up NATO allies to further attacks from Russia and China. In Ukraine, especially if Trump falls into Putin's many demands and pursues a deal at some cost, including putting responsibility solely on Europe to protect itself, then there will be a new war in the coming years. It greatly increases the risk.
Unfortunately, NATO is terribly unprepared to fill in the security blank left by retreating us.
Furthermore, if US security is not guaranteed, there is a very real risk that European countries do not want to commit their troops to Ukrainian peacekeeping forces.
It is noteworthy that Trump threatened to increase sanctions against Russia if Putin doesn't agree to end the battle, but given the already existing sanctions regime, the impact can be ignored. Masu.
Similarly, Trump's foreign policy – particularly on Ukraine – rejects traditional American policies, but it's hard to argue that it's less effective than former President Biden.
As Trump proved in his first term, an unorthodox approach to seemingly unruly foreign policy issues could result from Abraham Accord and others.
That being said, we are in a world where we are likely now beginning to feel that our allies cannot rely on the US to confront our commitments.
Second, erosion of America's geopolitical status will seriously undermine efforts to pursue other foreign policy goals, particularly to oppose China's aggression or to prevent Iran's nuclear weapons.
In summary, the withdrawal of American leaders from Europe, embodied by Trump's approach to Ukraine, has reverberating effects around the world.
Simply put, as Trump, to some degree justified – often asserting, the chaotic hideaway from Afghanistan led Putin to believe that he could invade Ukraine without consequences.
Freed from fear of the American opposition, dictators will seek to conquer their neighbours, and our allies will doubt whether we will come to their aid.
Our main impact in the international order created by the US will be fundamentally reduced, and the already dangerous world will be significantly larger.
Douglas E. Shane is a political consultant and founder and partner of Schoen Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is Vice President of Schoen Cooperman Research.
