More signs of a historic political realignment are emerging as Democrats make excuses for yet another election loss to Donald Trump.
Let's look all the way to New Jersey.
“Democrats need to consider whether this is a personal one-off or is there something deeper and more systemic and take this issue extremely seriously.”
No Republican presidential candidate has won the Garden State since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and the first time a Democrat has won in double digits since 1996, with the exception of George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign. He won the state by a margin of .
No matter how you look at it, New Jersey is a deep blue state. But that may be about to change.
Although Kamala Harris won the state on Election Day, her victory was by a narrow margin. It was only 5.1%. In other words, Harris had the worst performance by a New Jersey Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992, and had third-party candidate Ross Perot not siphoned off a ton of votes, Bill Clinton would have He would have defeated George H.W. Bush by an even larger margin.
Put another way, Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by 14 percentage points in 2016 and Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in 2020, but lost to Harris by just 5 percentage points in 2024. Ta.
According to What Should We Think About Trump's Solid Performance in New Jersey? To PoliticoThis means New Jersey could feature as a battleground state in future presidential elections.
President Trump's improvement in profit margins is not only impressive, Politico noticed Tuesday's results are “all the more shocking” because Democrats have a significant voter registration advantage of about 900,000 people over Republicans in the state.
Given President Trump's performance, Democratic strategist Dan Bryan told Politico that the party needs to wake up.
“Democrats need to take this very seriously and consider whether this is a personal one-off or if there's something deeper and more systemic,” he said.
In Hudson County, part of the New York City metro, Trump's approval rating improved by 9 percentage points compared to 2020. Elsewhere in the New York City area Similar changes were seen in support for Trump..
Hudson County Republican Party Chairman Jose Arango believes he knows why urban voters are shifting toward Trump.
“Democrats talk about helping the poor, but when it comes to Hudson County, it's a segregated, working-class and liberal enclave of people who are supporting Wall Street in a place where they basically can't pay their rent.” There is no affordable housing,” he told Politico.
New Jersey Republican strategist Chris Russell agrees that Trump's policies resonate with New Jerseyans.
“I think we saw the beginning of this in 2021,” Russell told Politico, referring to Republican Jack Ciatarelli's near victory in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.
“I think New Jersey voters are dissatisfied with economic issues, dissatisfied with crime issues, and I think there's a flip side to the issues that President Trump has exploited culturally,” Russell said. “People are tired of being told that they are bad people, that they are racists, that they are bigots, that they are Nazis. All these crazy accusations.”
This week, Governor Phil Murphy (Democratic) also explained His “canary in the coal mine” victory three years ago foreshadowed major electoral realignment in the state.
It remains to be seen whether Republicans will win New Jersey in the upcoming elections. But it's clear New Jersey is not an outlier..
In New York, for example, Trump lost 23% in 2020, but is expected to lose just 11% this year. Trump lost California by 29% in 2020, but has now lost just 17% this year. This phenomenon is- redshift — happened all over the countrymost pronounced in historically blue states.
If Republicans value what made them successful this year, there may still be hope in California, New York, Illinois and other longtime Democratic strongholds.
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