New Space Policy Under Trump Administration

In December, the White House unveiled a report detailing the new space policy for the second Trump administration. This presidential order aims to “secure the nation’s vital economic and security interests” and “unleash commercial development” in space.

According to the order, nations that can effectively pursue and defend their interests will control space and its resources.

This policy comes on the heels of significant actions from the Department of Energy, which made headlines last May with the “first-ever government purchase of natural resources from space.” The focus here is on lunar helium-3, which could be available by 2029, potentially marking the beginning of a modern-day gold rush. The value of this isotope is estimated to be around $20 million. The broader goal of Trump’s order is to stimulate exploration and exploitation of this frontier.

Withdrawing from the Outer Space Treaty (OST) could help the U.S. secure its interests in space. Ratified in 1967 during the Cold War, the treaty was designed to prevent terrestrial tensions from spilling into space after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik.

The United Nations Special Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space highlighted that while scientific cooperation had been fruitful, many questions about settlements and resource exploitation in space remained unanswered. At that time, Yuri Gagarin had just completed his first orbit, and Neil Armstrong had yet to take his famous steps on the moon.

The final treaty left certain issues vague. Borrowing concepts from the Antarctic Treaty, the OST prohibits sovereignty claims and military operations involving mass destruction in outer space. The path for governing settlements and resource exploitation is still an open discussion.

As Cold War dynamics shift towards new tensions involving the U.S., Russia, and China, space remains a neutral ground, referred to as an “area of peace.” However, superpowers were already developing anti-satellite technologies prior to the OST. Innovations in this area continue to emerge, with reports of Chinese weapon systems designed for “air combat” in orbit. Additionally, despite agreeing to the OST, Russia has allegedly been developing a nuclear-capable electromagnetic pulse system.

Military satellites are essential for national infrastructure, including the global positioning system (GPS). The question arises: how would U.S. military forces respond if their GPS satellites were compromised?

The initial Trump administration took steps toward establishing a Space Force, but China has mirrored this by forming its own “Aerospace Force.” A space race has reignited, with potentially greater stakes than during the Cold War.

Now, the prospect of settlement and resource extraction in space is becoming more tangible. The moon holds valuable resources like rare earth elements, and helium-3, which could address challenges in nuclear fusion and quantum computing. Consequently, nations like China and Russia are stepping up their lunar missions.

It’s clear that the current legal framework around space lacks effective measures for sovereignty and doesn’t fully restrain aggressive competitors. Control of space resources is likely to go to those that can safeguard their interests. The pivotal question remains: can the U.S. seize this opportunity?

Exiting the OST could eliminate international challenges to claiming sovereignty over celestial bodies—something that has probably hindered American interests. Without the treaty’s restrictions, the U.S. could develop defenses against hostile actions and safeguard its off-planet interests. There are individuals who dream of making a “Republic of Aerospace” a reality.

A clear route to claiming sovereignty over celestial bodies would lay the foundation for a robust American space economy. The 2015 Commercial Space Startup Competitiveness Act facilitates private entities in extracting and selling resources from space. Future government policies could mirror those governing federal land, allowing private operators to confidently mine space resources.

The benefits of such policies would extend back to Earth, generating potential government revenue from extraterrestrial leases and possibly launching new financial sectors. Increased commercialization might make space colonization financially viable, akin to the pioneers of old.

While leaving the OST might prompt adversarial nations to do the same, it would enable the U.S. to leverage space as a legitimate platform for national power, much like China has been doing. Such a withdrawal could allow the U.S. to openly enhance its capabilities in line with its adversaries, decreasing the likelihood of conflict and likely restoring strategic balance.

Profit-driven motives often fuel peace pursuits. As Russia and China explore their own interests in space, the financial risks associated with potential conflicts might deter aggressive actions. There might also be incentives to avoid environmental destruction, and even in times of tension, mutual interests in resource management could pave the way for cooperation.

Ultimately, some competition could be beneficial. Renewed rivalry in space could lead to an invigorated spirit of exploration across the globe. A new space race, where clear winners emerge, might be more genuine than previous efforts, which were, after all, “in the interest of all nations.” To this point, only a handful of countries have successfully landed on the moon.

Withdrawal from the OST isn’t a one-time decision—it’s a process. Article 16 allows the president to initiate a withdrawal notice that would take effect in a year. Legal challenges seem unlikely. Historical precedents suggest that past treaty withdrawals faced minimal opposition from Congress or the courts.

Space resource transport and technology advancements continue to progress. The Trump administration has set ambitious goals, like returning to the moon by 2028, followed by establishing a “permanent lunar outpost” and promoting economic development. America must adapt its outdated legal frameworks concerning space, lest it fall behind in the new era of space travel and exploration—it’s crucial for the nation to seize its rightful place.