Recent analysis indicates that the tariff policies implemented during the Trump administration could lead to cost increases of around 4.5%. Washington’s Fair Growth Center reported that prices in certain sectors, particularly those involved in repairs and maintenance like manufacturing and auto repair, could rise between 2% and 4.5%.
Researcher Christopher Bangat Down highlighted that these sectors are particularly vulnerable to tariffs, especially since raw material imports from China might face additional taxes. The economic relationship between the two largest global economies has been shifting gradually towards a more stable trade framework following the trade war and a ceasefire in May.
According to a statement released on Tuesday, “manufacturing is likely to be the most susceptible industrial category, regardless of specifics related to the product or the tariff regulations of a particular country.” Bangat Down pointed out that while some manufacturing sub-sectors might be less impacted, their overall dependency on imported materials means they will likely incur higher tariff costs than other industries.
He also mentioned that in an average month of 2025, roughly 8 million individuals were employed in construction, with one in ten U.S. workers linked to industries nearby.
With the introduction of the new trade rates, there’s concern that some businesses may need to downsize their workforce due to economic strains.
“Many factors, beyond the scope of this analysis, will play a role in determining how domestic companies transfer tariff costs to employees. These include aspects like union agreements, gender, race, and other characteristics of the labor force,” the organization noted.
Interestingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that over 10% of construction workers and more than 7.9% of manufacturing employees have access to union contracts, offering them more protection from job loss related to tariffs compared to the general private sector, where the union coverage is at 5.9%.
Moreover, Bangat Down suggests that some sectors might actually thrive due to the president’s revised trade policies.
As stated by the organization, “President Trump’s extensive tariff policies could have profound, often contradictory economic effects on both the U.S. and the global market. Some American industries might even see a resurgence as their products grow more competitive locally against tariff-impacted imports.”
However, it remains uncertain whether these potential advantages will outweigh the tariff-related burdens—especially in light of increasing consumer prices and impacts on U.S. workers.
