Former President Trump solidified Florida's status as a deep red state on Tuesday, flipping several counties in the state upside down.
For the first time in 36 years, Republicans won at the presidential level in Miami-Dade County, and the greater Tampa area also moved into the red. Mr. Trump also flipped Duval County, Jacksonville, and large swaths of blue-tinged Central Florida.
Trump led the state by 13 points on Tuesday, a dramatic improvement from his roughly 3-point lead in 2020 and his 1-point lead in 2016.
Florida has been on a Republican trajectory for nearly a decade, but Trump's victory and Vice President Harris' poor performance underscore the extent to which Florida has tightened its political grip on the state. And it's also a symbol of the former president's overperformance on election night.
“I looked at Duval and said Duval is the epitome of Georgia,” said Florida Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. “He’s going to win by five points, he’s definitely going to beat Georgia.”
In Florida, as in much of the state, the economy and immigration reigned as the top issues for voters. According to Associated Press VoteCast, 41% of voters said the economy was the most important issue, followed by immigration at 23% and abortion at 9%.
“Now Trump wins by a landslide by 13 points. Part of that is kind of an affirmation. [Trump’s] Issues like immigration, the economy, and inflation will be on the table,” said Justin Safey, a Florida-based Republican strategist.
Other Republicans attribute their increased success in the state in part to their conservative populist message on issues like immigration and the economy.
“What Trump helped spark the conversation was help a lot of Florida politicians talk about populist conservatism. So that's how you can win Miami-Dade.” said O'Connell.
The message made a positive impression on the state's Latino population, particularly in Miami-Dade County in South Florida and Osceola County in Central Florida. Of note is that Mr. Trump flipped Osceola County, which had been led by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Biden by double digits, by just over 1 percentage point. Miami-Dade has a large Cuban-American population, while Osceola County has a significant Puerto Rican population.
Safie and other Florida Republicans argued Tuesday night's results were the culmination of many factors, including the state's more than a decade of population growth and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)'s response to the coronavirus pandemic. and received widespread praise for the Republican Party's infrastructure efforts. When Trump became a resident of Florida in 2020, he specifically made the state a Republican center.
“This didn't happen overnight,” O'Connell said. “Mechanically, it started with Rick Scott,” he continued, referring to Scott’s first gubernatorial victory in 2010.
“After the first election, the Florida Republican Party began its voter registration efforts in earnest,” O'Connell said.
There are currently more than 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state.
Scott, who served two terms as governor, was re-elected to the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, surpassing all of Florida's previous wins overall. The senator had won narrow elections and re-elections in the state in the past, but on Tuesday he defeated former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D-Fla.) by more than 12 points. .
Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to Scott's campaign, said much of the victory was due to Republicans' voter registration advantage in the state.
“It's really hard to compare what's happening in Florida to other parts of the country,” Hartline said. “We won Hillsborough, we won Pinellas, we won Seminole, we performed better in Orange. Is that because Harris failed with suburban voters, or is there more Republicans in the state than before?” Is it because it is registered?”
“And it's hard to completely ignore the tactical aspect of the Florida Democratic Party not having a functioning party,” he added.
Florida Democrats on Tuesday touted bright spots, including a 25% increase in voter turnout starting in 2022 and the fact that a majority of voters supported legislation enshrining abortion rights in the state. The measure ultimately failed because it did not meet the 60 percent threshold.
“For the next four years, the Florida Democratic Party will continue to organize, rally, and hold Republicans accountable, because our job is to Because it's bigger than the election.”
But like Democrats across the country, the Florida party is grappling with what went wrong nationally and within its home state.
“Democrats suffered a disaster at the top of the campaign, which is what I said publicly at the beginning of the campaign,” said John Morgan, a prominent Central Florida-based lawyer and Democratic donor. ” he said.
“Florida is officially Texas and Pennsylvania is officially Florida,” he continued.
But some Florida Republicans warned that the same conditions that helped Republicans in the state could help Democrats in the future and urged their colleagues not to get too comfortable in the state. Some people are.
“Right now, Florida is a red state, but I don't think Republicans are going to get cocky, and the reason is simple: We have a very transient population, things change, and eventually Democrats will We might put it together,” O’Connell said.
“Our two-party system creates political parties and allows them to reinvent themselves. That's why we can't be cocky.”
