On Friday, the small Pacific island nation of Tuvalu heads to the polls to elect its 16 members of parliament.
Tuvalu's population is just over 11,000 people, so elections in Tuvalu rarely make international headlines. But with fierce geopolitical competition and China's growing influence in the region, this year's vote is under greater scrutiny, with the outcome having implications far beyond Tuvalu. there is a possibility.
what's happening?
Tuvaluan candidates are vying for one of two seats in each of Tuvalu's eight island constituencies. Many islands have fewer than 1,500 voters, and it is often only a few votes that separate the winners from the losers in each district.
There are no political parties in Tuvalu, and all candidates are running as independents. Once the tally is complete, expected hours after voting closes on Friday, a complex negotiation period will begin in which the 16 newly elected MPs will form factions. The largest group forms the government and elects the prime minister.
As a result, even if current Prime Minister Kausea Natano succeeds in retaining Funafuti's seat, he may not be re-elected as national leader. In fact, Prime Minister Natano's Finance Minister, Seve Paeniu, is aiming to become prime minister himself and has already secured a parliamentary seat by running unopposed in the constituency of Nukulaelae. He said he had started discussions with other candidates to establish his own leadership position.
Opposition leader Enele Sopoaga is also vying for re-election as Prime Minister of Tuvalu, having lost his position to Natano in the last election in 2019.
What does this result mean for China and Taiwan?
Tuvalu is one of only 12 countries in the world that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The nearby Pacific nation of Nauru switched allegiance from Taiwan to China earlier this month, days after Taiwan's presidential election.
There is speculation Tuvalu may take similar steps after Friday's elections, but Taiwanese Foreign Ministry official Eric Cheng denounced such rumors. “The Tuvaluan government reiterated its commitment to strengthening diplomatic relations with our country,” Chen said at a recent press conference.
Under the Natano administration, Tuvalu has maintained strong ties with Taiwan, and the prime minister will visit Taipei as part of an official delegation in 2022. Mr. Natano reaffirmed his support for Taiwan at the Pacific Islands Forum in November, and revealed that his government had been approached by the Chinese government to form a diplomatic alliance, but he said that China had “double diplomatic ties with Taiwan and Taiwan.” This request was rejected because he did not allow them to have a relationship. .
Sopoaga, who served as Tuvalu's ambassador to Taiwan, told the Guardian: “I strongly believe in this.”[s] Tuvalu should continue to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign, independent state and diplomatic friend. ”
However, Paeniu said that if he became prime minister, he would “review” Tuvalu's relations with Taiwan and China to ensure that its foreign policy is in the best interest of the country.
“Even within the government that has led Tuvalu for the past four years, we have different opinions on certain topics, including issues of Taiwan and China,” he told the Guardian. “So I think this is something that could be considered.”
Since 2016, the movement of countries abandoning support for Taiwan in favor of China has accelerated globally, with elections often He said it marked a “tipping point.” ” for the new government to make “major changes in foreign policy.”
“The Taiwanese government will be very concerned about this.” [election] “It could bring about new potential changes that could result in Taiwan losing another of its dwindling diplomatic partners around the world,” Sola said.
Tuvalu's election results will be known on Friday night, with a government expected to be formed within the next few days.
What does this election mean for the Australia-Tuvalu treaty?
Foreign policy is expected to have a big impact on candidates' leadership bids, with the Migration and Security Treaty signed between Tuvalu and Australia in November weighing heavily in the vote.
The agreement has not yet been ratified by both countries and has sparked heated debate in Tuvalu's parliament. Opposition leader Sopoaga has said he intends to tear up the deal if he is elected prime minister.
“This deal is unilateral and everything has to do with what Tuvalu has to deliver.” [to]But Australia is not committed. [to] Anything is fine,” Sopoaga told the Guardian.
Meanwhile, Paeniou, who was instrumental in negotiating the deal with Australia, said he would continue to support the deal and ensure it came into force if elected prime minister. However, a controversial element of the agreement that states Tuvalu must “mutually agree with Australia” if it wishes to enter into agreements with other countries on security and defense-related issues will be subject to “minor amendments”. He said he intended to do so.
“That would have to be negotiated with Australia,” Mr Paeniu said.
Mr Sola described the situation as a potential “stress point” for Australia. “This is in some ways a tense moment for Australian diplomacy,” Mr Sola said. “I expect that agreement will be scrutinized in the new administration.”
