President Trump’s intelligence agency has assessed that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is more likely to pursue nuclear weapons than his father did. This raises alarms about Iran’s long-term nuclear goals, even in light of the significant damage previously inflicted on its nuclear program.
A report from the New York Times mentioned that U.S. officials, briefed on recent intelligence, noted that Mojtaba appears to be far less cautious in seeking nuclear weapons compared to his predecessor, Ayatollah Khamenei. This conclusion is primarily based on intelligence collected before the onset of the current war.
Mojtaba stepped into the leadership role after his father was killed during the initial attack of Operation Epic Fury. He reportedly sustained serious injuries from that attack and hasn’t made any public appearances since taking over. Officials indicated that his sparse communications complicate efforts to ascertain his current motives.
U.S. officials reported no signs of Iran restarting nuclear enrichment or weapons development since the conflict began. Instead, they believe the Iranian government is concentrating on maintaining its existing nuclear assets and expertise, with a view to possibly reestablishing its nuclear program in the future.
Rather than rushing to reconstruct damaged facilities, Iran is allegedly focused on safeguarding what’s left of its nuclear infrastructure. Some of this equipment is believed to have been relocated to the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz.
Following the destruction of key nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan during June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, undeclared underground facilities have become a significant concern for Washington and Jerusalem.
Earlier reports suggested that Iran may have shifted advanced centrifuge equipment to the mountain complex, but U.S. officials think some of Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile might have survived the airstrikes.
Pickaxe Mountain is thought to have tunnels deeper than those at Fordow, especially considering the latter has been one of Iran’s most challenging nuclear targets. American and Israeli officials worry that if Iran decides to revive its program, remaining materials and personnel could be concentrated in this mountain facility.
Recently, President Trump emphasized this location while stating that the U.S. has additional military options on the table regarding Iran.
Last week, when asked about Pickaxe Mountain, Trump remarked, “We’re not done at all.” He hinted that a military attack could occur “quite soon,” while adding that the government initially sought a diplomatic resolution with Iran.
The facility is now a focal point as U.S. military planners are reportedly contemplating a distinctive operation to secure Iran’s remaining enriched uranium if diplomatic efforts fail.
According to a recent New York Post report, this operation could involve ground forces establishing a perimeter, followed by military engineers and specialists tasked with safely extracting nuclear materials from the fortified site.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Joseph Rogers described this potential mission as one of the most complex in military history, emphasizing that it would be logistically challenging.
Rogers indicated that the operation would likely demand a substantial presence on the surface to ensure the safe handling and transport of enriched uranium.
Richard Goldberg, a former senior National Security Council official, pointed out that a recovery operation would necessitate securing the vicinity, protecting transport efforts, and preparing for defenses within the facility.
Goldberg also made a clear distinction between objectives aimed merely at destroying sites versus those targeting the recovery of nuclear materials, noting that the latter would entail much greater challenges.
The described plans stem from worries that simply launching further airstrikes on the fortified mountain might not guarantee the complete removal of enriched uranium and other crucial assets from Iranian control.
The report does not confirm that Iran has indeed moved its uranium reserves to Mount Pickaxe, nor does it assert that the site is fully operational or that Trump has sanctioned ground operations. Instead, these contingency plans are noted as military options under consideration should negotiations collapse and it becomes evident that Iran intends to maintain or reconstruct its nuclear capabilities in undisclosed facilities.
Trump has consistently stated that Iran “cannot possess nuclear weapons,” while also expressing a preference for a negotiated resolution if Iran agrees to meet U.S. conditions.
He remarked, “Look, we’re locked and loaded,” while suggesting there could be a turning point in discussions.
This intelligence assessment underscores that even though U.S. officials have not observed any new enrichment activities by Iran, concerns are shifting toward whether its new leadership will keep and eventually rebuild the nuclear program, and how its fortified mountain facilities could facilitate that ambition.
