U.S. Soccer’s women ran through the Olympic group stage. We predict the rest of their run

This time last year, the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team was in disarray.

Indeed, it was last July when Megan Rapinoe, a mainstay of the team for nearly a decade, announced her intention to retire from professional soccer. It felt like the confluence of a rapidly growing series of unfortunate events.

After winning the 2019 FIFA World Cup, things began to unravel with the departure of influential players and legendary coach Jill Ellis, who had led Rapinoe and the United States to World Cup glory, followed by a short-lived coaching tenure, a handover of reins to a new face and unconventional results against countries that would have been unbeatable for the U.S. Women’s National Team in years past.

So when it was announced that former Chelsea women’s team manager Emma Hayes would be leaving the English Women’s Super League to take over the reins and try to lead the once feared US team back to prominence, questions arose.

She was unfamiliar with the American way of doing things, not well educated on the U.S. Soccer Federation and had never coached at a U.S. university level before moving to international soccer.

She has not historically been the prototype of what team supporters have felt brings success.

But a few months into her tenure, she led the U.S. to the Olympic quarterfinals with a perfect record of 3 wins, 0 losses and 0 draws in group play, outscoring opponents by a total of nine goals to just two from the opposition.

It feels like the USA of old. They may not be new faces, but they are the latest in a crop of talented Americans tasked with bringing home a gold medal from Paris and bringing back honor to the name of a country that has boasted the most success in international women’s soccer for nearly four decades.

Photo by PASCAL GUYOT/AFP via Getty Images

So close…

The U.S. has two games left to win at least a gold or silver medal, and the potential opponents include many of the teams that have overtaken the U.S. Women’s National Team in the past, as these changes have dropped the perennial No. 1-ranked team to No. 5.

First, the U.S. will face off in the quarterfinals on Saturday (9 a.m., Peacock) against the always-formidable Japan. With a win, the U.S. will advance to the semifinals, where they’ll face one of seven teams, including six ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Women’s World Rankings.

The star of the quarter-final group is not the United States, but Spain, currently ranked number one in the world, who advanced through the group stage without any hesitation.

Estimated Time

This is the US team that will win the medal. At this point, it’s a question of who will win the medal. Japan is strong, but the US is on a roll. What are our thoughts? This game will not go to a penalty shootout, and the US will lose 3-1 and advance to the semi-finals.

If that happens, they will face the winner of the match between Canada and Germany on August 6 (noon ET). Canada has been embroiled in controversy even before the tournament began over a drone spying scandal over their opening group match, New Zealand, and there have been growing calls for the coach to resign.

Photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images

Still, Canada, gold medal winners at the last Summer Olympics, hung on, but their luck ran out against a very good and physically strong German team, setting up a semifinal between the United States and Germany. That semifinal could go one of two ways: Either coach Emma Hayes’ young players can fend off Germany’s methodical game plan, or the stout defense that has carried Germany this far — a team that has allowed just five goals in the tournament (four of those came in a loss to the United States in Group B) — can force a match that goes to penalties.

It all depends on which team can keep their cool, beat the goalkeeper and advance to the Olympic final on August 10.

Our guess? USA vs Spain will be a chance for the U.S. to find out just how close they are to winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2022 and becoming the team considered the best in the world. Spain will ultimately win, but the U.S. will get a very good look at what this new era of national team stars needs to do to reclaim their spot as the best in the world, plus there will be a nice consolation prize of bringing home a silver medal for the U.S.

Final ScoreSpain 3, USA 2.