UFC 305 paths to victory: How Dricus du Plessis, Israel Adesanya can win middleweight title

Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya are finally going to settle their business.

This Saturday, du Plessis and Adesanya will face off for the undisputed middleweight title in the main event of UFC 305. When the bout was first planned, Adesanya was the middleweight champion and du Plessis the challenger, and the two were fighting over their African descent. However, after Adesanya surrendered the belt to Sean Strickland, the matchup was postponed until this weekend. With the long-awaited grudge match finally happening, let’s discuss how the two will leave Perth, Australia as middleweight champions.

Drix du Plessis’ path to victory at UFC 305

A former KSW welterweight champion, du Plessis joined UFC in 2020 and quickly made waves in the middleweight division with his signature all-out attacking style that remains the foundation of du Plessis’ style today: aggressive, aggressive, and sometimes reckless, much like middleweight Justin Gaethje.

Duplessis is a jack-of-all-trades fighter, equally adept at kickboxing bouts and grappling, but what really makes him stand out is his physique. A former welterweight, Duplessis is big for his weight class and HOSS certified, and his dominance over Robert Whittaker shows he’s a man of superhuman strength and power.

Du Plessis will need to unleash his power against Adesanya.

Duplessis comes from a kickboxing background, but he’s no stand-up expert. He’s strong, athletic and has a great understanding of tactics that makes him very dangerous, but he won’t wow you with his technical brilliance. But then again, neither is Yoel Romero, and he couldn’t put a finger on Adesanya (let’s be honest, du Plessis is a lot like Romero, with better kicks and worse defense).

On the stand, du Plessis’ best bet is to keep Adesanya under pressure and in his guard. Adesanya doesn’t have a lot of counter attacks, so he can be easily beaten by just coming forward, as Strickland did. But to do that, du Plessis has to walk through the fire. If he goes wild on the stand, as he is sometimes in the habit of doing, he’ll be in a very dangerous situation. Defense fundamentals and pressure will be key.

Once he establishes that, his grappling is how he turns the key and opens the door. Adesanya is a great defensive wrestler, but he can’t compete with du Plessis’ body in close quarters. The way du Plessis wins this fight is by getting a takedown and establishing position on the floor. When he did that against Robert Whittaker, it was a close call, and the same can be said here.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Israel Adesanya’s path to victory at UFC 305

Adesanya, a two-time middleweight champion, has a chance to become just the second fighter in UFC history (joining Randy Couture) to win three titles in the same weight class while remaining undefeated, and if he does it, he’ll do it the same way he won his first two bouts: with world-class kickboxing.

When Adesanya moved to UFC, the MMA world couldn’t wait to see how the elite Glory kickboxer would fare, and it turned out very well: Adesanya is a better MMA fighter than he was as a kickboxer (which is amazing) and has cemented his reputation as the best striker in UFC history.

For Adesanya, it all starts with vision, distance and timing. “The Last Stylebender” is capable of competing with fighters of many different styles, but over the years, his exceptional awareness has allowed him to rely on his counter-striking skills. Adesanya has great footwork, allowing him to stay at a comfortable distance, dictating the tempo with his kicks or parrying his opponents’ attacks to launch his own flurries.

And that’s exactly how he beat du Plessis.

Distance and space is where Adesanya shines and where du Plessis is most dangerous. Sean Strickland gave du Plessis a lot of problems with his jab, teeps and footwork. Adesanya is better at all of those things and can do something very similar. Plus, Strickland was never a good counter fighter, but Adesanya has the power and skill to counter du Plessis when he steps in or gets lazy.

The concern for Adesanya will be getting back up and creating space. Against Strickland, instead of putting his attacks in range, Adesanya retreated almost at will to land the perfect counter. Doing so against du Plessis would be a terrible idea, as it would put him in the role he wants to play. To win this fight, Adesanya needs to keep his back against the fence and avoid the clinch. Luckily, he has proven he is more than capable of doing that when he wants to.

X-Factor

It would be disrespectful to say that Israel Adesanya is old. In sports in general, and combat sports in particular, 35 is the retirement age, and it’s entirely possible that Adesanya is heading toward retirement and we just haven’t realized it yet, especially with what he’s been through.

Adesanya has been fighting since he was 18 years old. He has 32 amateur kickboxing bouts, 80 pro bouts, 6 boxing bouts and 27 MMA bouts. That’s 145 bouts in total! And that doesn’t include the random bouts that slipped off the record, gym fights and street fights. The human body just isn’t built to withstand that much. It eventually wears down. We may have seen that in the Strickland fight.

People seem to forget how bad the Strickland loss was for Adesanya because Strickland has since made a name for himself as one of the best fighters in the world, but it was a real shocker. On paper, it should have been Adesanya’s easiest fight in years, but he They cheered.It was an absolute smash, and in retrospect it was a display of Adesanya’s age.

First, Strickland takes him down in the first round. Adesanya deserves credit for taking every punch Strickland threw as cleanly as possible and getting back up, but I’ve never seen Adesanya get beaten like this, especially so early in a fight.

Secondly, Adesanya kind of surrendered. Don’t get me wrong, he fought tough, but even as the fight dragged on and it became clear he was going to lose, Adesanya just couldn’t pull the trigger to turn things around. Even in the final moments of the fight, when defeat was certain, Strickland tried to fight, but Adesanya just couldn’t afford it. That’s worrying.

As old age hits, the first things a fighter loses are his chin and his trigger, as well as his inability to withstand damage and his reluctance to attack, both of which were evident in Adesanya’s last fight and are very worrying.

prediction

On paper, this is a matchup of very good styles. At least it was. 18 months ago, these two were the perfect foil for each other. Now? I’m not sure. As I said in the section above, it seems likely that Adesanya is no longer at his best. Would Adesanya be able to beat du Plessis at 80% of his strength? That’s tough.

In his prime, Adesanya seems to have a clear path to victory and the ability to execute it, but when he’s not in his prime, he’s in trouble. Du Plessis is a smart enough fighter to give Adesanya a tough fight at any time, and he now has every size advantage.

Dricus du Plessis def. Israel Adesanya via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)