UFC 307 Paths to Victory: How does Khalil Rountree Jr. pull off a massive upset over Alex Pereira?

Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira will put his title on the line against fellow knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event at UFC 307 on Saturday night at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Pereira is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and has already helped the UFC twice this year, at UFC 300 and UFC 303 (which he won by stunning knockout). As such, Rountree is a serious underdog for the champion. But that doesn't mean War Horse can't shock the world on Saturday, so we'll see how Rountree pulls off the upset and how Pereira defends his belt. Sho.

Alex Pereira's path to victory at UFC 307

this is, third Of these, I wrote one for Pereira this year, but to be honest, I'm having a bit of a hard time finding new ways to communicate how great “Poitan” is. The man is on a fast track to a Hall of Fame career, and has already climbed the list of all-time fighters just a few years into the sport. He's in the midst of a truly unprecedented career, and that should continue Saturday, at least on paper.

Pereira has a true nuclear option, perhaps more than anyone else in MMA right now. He's probably the hardest pound-for-pound puncher in the sport, and what's really incredible is that he doesn't swing hard. Although he is best known for his deadly left hook, all of Pereira's shots come down like concrete blocks, and he doesn't have the huge windup seen in other heavy hitters. This is the engine that drives his entire game. The threat of instant catastrophe would force all of Pereira's opponents to prepare accordingly, which would greatly determine the outcome of Pereira's fight.

Along these lines, while Pereira's knockouts power his game, it's his low kicks that move the car. Pereira is one of the best calf kickers in MMA. Because, although he shows little setup against calf kickers, he still significantly disrupts his opponents. They are the foundation of his game, allowing him to land seemingly innocuous strikes, and then, oh, suddenly Pereira scores 15 in three minutes and his legs don't work anymore.

And those are all Pereira needs to defend his title on Saturday. The structure of Pereira's game is a Scylla and Charybdis setup where you can either stay on the outside and get kicked to death, or enter the danger zone and face his nuclear powers. Either path leads to death, but this is especially true for Rountree. He's not a skilled defender with low kicks, and he's not going to suddenly transform into a D-1 wrestler. He also has a bad habit of dropping his right hand when throwing his left hand.

For Pereira, the path forward is clear. It’s about being yourself and limiting your long-term commitments. Rountree is not a very good kickboxer, but he has speed and power and can throw combinations, making him a risk. Pereira should cut the leg from the outside and set up a shot to the body as well while waiting for Rountree to let his guard down, then the dynamite goes boom.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC, Getty Images

Khalil Rountree Jr.'s path to victory at UFC 307

He has been active as a UFC fighter since 2016 and was promoted during the off-season. ultimate fighterRountree established himself as one of the light heavyweight division's best knockout artists during his eight-year tenure. But perhaps even more impressive than his knockout is the fact that Rountree defeated the former Glory Kickboxer 3-0 in the UFC, proving he is particularly capable of dispatching the former Glory Kickboxer. . But this time, “The Glory Killer” will face the end boss of Glory Kickboxing, former two-division champion Pereira.

Rountree's success against the former kickboxer comes down to one simple reason. It's that he's a solid striker in his own right, with the speed and power to catch people off guard. Rountree is fast and powerful, with quick combinations to finish off shots, and an aggressive attitude that makes him a threat in any interaction. That being said, it does give him the potential to be defeated by counters, which can lead to death against Pereira.

Rountree faces two major problems in this matchup. The first is to be able to manipulate Pereira's kicks well. Rountree is not good at checking low kicks, and it is expected that he has honed that skill in this match, but what is more likely is a drill counter, and every time Pereira kicks, Rountree's left hand reacts and shoots. It was like that. If checks can't stop the calf kick, counters are the only real option to stop Pereira's action.

The second challenge is to create a stable attack of your own. The match against Dustin Jacoby showed that Rountree struggled to manage his distance with a good striker with good footwork and therefore settled for charging recklessly at times. I can't stress enough how bad of an idea that is for Pereira. Pereira is quick to condemn him.

Instead, Rountree should insist on winning pressure battles. Pereira can fight off the back foot, but he would be much better off if Rountree was always in front. He should also do a lot of feints. Feints create a lot of opportunities for Israel Adesanya, and from Rountree, feints could be the difference between getting a fight-ender or not. But most importantly, Rountree needs to use these tools to crowd Pereira and get inside so he can swing for the fences. Will “Poatan” be able to catch him if he starts exchanging hooks in the telephone booth? Yes. But that's also where Rountree is most likely to settle Pereira himself.

Just go in and toss and see where the chips fall.

I have one big question.

Will the grueling schedule finally catch up with Pereira?

Pereira is 37 years old. Even at light heavyweight, it's not exactly spring chicken. This guy has been fighting professionally for 12 years and has over 50 professional fights. That's quite a distance. On top of that, Pereira has been exceptionally active since joining the UFC. This will be the 10th race in the last three years. This is Donald Cerrone-level performance, which is good for creating a star, but bad for staying undefeated.

In almost all sports, frequent competition sometimes leads to defeat. You won't always have the best day, especially if you're fighting every few months. And this situation is even worse in martial arts because the cost of training and the injuries that accumulate there are very high. So far, Pereira has mostly proven that he can overcome such obstacles and win, but if you roll the dice enough, you'll eventually get a snake eye.

prediction

At the risk of sounding disrespectful to Rountree, this should be a showcase for Pereira. Rountree is a fun fighter, but he's like the following words: 300, “He's more of a brawler than a fighter, and he mixes things up nicely.” If Rountree can make this more of a brawl than a kickboxing fight, he has a better chance of winning, but even if he does, it's not guaranteed. Pereira is too knowledgeable and packs too much power of his own against Rountree 8 out of 10 times.

Alex Pereira KOs Khalil Rountree Jr. at 1:03 of round 2.