Ukraine’s Plan for Simultaneous Elections and Referendum
Ukraine is gearing up to hold presidential elections alongside a referendum on a peace deal by spring 2026. This move aims to legitimize a U.S.-brokered settlement, as reported. The Ukrainian government, in collaboration with European nations, has indicated that these wartime elections are necessary to reaffirm President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s mandate, which has been stalled for some time. This confirmation is pivotal for activating U.S. security assistance aimed at Ukraine.
The proposed referendum seems to be a strategy to address Ukrainian resistance to a contentious peace agreement that would grant Russia permanent control over a significant portion of eastern Ukraine in exchange for halting the conflict. President Zelenskiy has emphasized that he cannot make unilateral decisions regarding the transfer of Ukrainian land, labeling it unconstitutional. Instead, he believes that such decisions should be made through a referendum.
Reports suggest President Zelenskiy is under pressure from the U.S. to get a lasting peace deal finalized by the onset of summer, especially with midterm elections looming. A key announcement regarding the elections is anticipated on February 24, with voting expected to wrap up before a May 15 deadline set by Washington.
However, uncertainties linger about these claims, as Ukraine has already raised challenges to this narrative. Officials close to Zelenskiy reportedly stated that no elections would occur unless a long-term security pact with the West is established, asserting that guarantees are essential prior to any electoral process.
One of Zelenskiy’s allies pointedly remarked, “There will be no announcement unless there is security.”
Kiev has consistently maintained that elections during an ongoing war are impractical, arguing that such circumstances violate constitutional norms and hinder the ability to conduct fair elections. With millions either armed or displaced, plus a fifth of the nation’s territory under Russian occupation, the situation complicates the electoral landscape significantly. Furthermore, some previously elected pro-Russian or anti-war parties face outright bans.
As no new parliamentary elections are on the horizon and with Zelenskiy at the helm of the largest political party, the structure of Ukraine’s parliament is unlikely to shift even if a new president emerges.
Opponents of Zelenskiy may face challenges in mounting a successful campaign against a wartime leader. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko expressed his concerns, suggesting that political rivalry during wartime could jeopardize national cohesion. “Political competition during wartime is detrimental… we risk fracturing the country from within, which aligns with Russia’s objectives,” he cautioned.
A working group is reportedly exploring how to conduct elections under martial law while ensuring adherence to European Union standards. With many Ukrainians currently residing abroad, measures are needed to establish polling locations in host countries for those refugees to participate in the election process.
Kiev is wary of potential Russian influence within these European nations and may seek cooperation from foreign intelligence services to mitigate such threats during the electoral process.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Zelenskiy for nearly a year to secure a democratic mandate through elections, asserting that this step is crucial for Ukraine’s involvement in peace negotiations by February 2025. Trump emphasized that the timing is crucial, stating, “They’re using the war as a pretext to avoid elections, but I believe the Ukrainian populace wants and deserves this.”
He also remarked, “Mr. Zelensky will probably win. But it’s been quite some time since elections were held. They speak about democracy, yet it’s increasingly becoming anything but.”
