Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging greater support from allies as he addresses the United Nations and meets Donald Trump this week. However, behind the scenes, Kyiv is quietly shifting towards a new phase of the war.
The anticipation of securing tough new U.S. sanctions against Russia seems to be fading, and Zelensky’s visits to the U.S. are reportedly less contentious than they once were.
Expressions of Ukrainian enthusiasm in European diplomacy and some regret have led to resumed arms supplies, following a disastrous meeting back in February. There’s been a sharing of crucial U.S. intelligence reports and the revival of arms supply approvals from Trump’s administration.
Despite efforts, the lobbying hasn’t succeeded in persuading Trump to impose sanctions strong enough to pressure President Vladimir Putin into negotiation, leaving many Ukrainians doubtful that the war will end soon.
Ukrainians are uncertain about the future
Only 18% of Ukrainians believe they will finish this year confident, according to Anton Gruschitsky from the Kyiv Institute for International Sociology, highlighting a broad uncertainty about the future.
Putin has recently celebrated a diplomatic win with a summit with Trump in Alaska, and there are indications that Ukraine is adapting to a new phase in the war, one where foreign support is dwindling.
A Ukrainian think tank researching Russian sanctions is now analyzing military targets for drone strikes, as sources report Ukraine is not just facing reduced U.S. support, but potentially losing backing from other European alliances.
In a bid to counter Russian movements, Ukrainian long-range drones have begun striking ports and refineries, eliciting Russian warnings of impending power cuts for oil producers.
“A very important place”
Zelensky is expected to request new sanctions against Russia during his meeting with Trump before addressing the UN General Assembly.
Kyiv is also pushing for a summit focused on Crimea, which is under Russian occupation—a move likely aimed at countering discussions on peace agreements that might acknowledge Russian claims over the territory.
According to Putin, more than 700,000 Russian troops are stationed along the frontline, and Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian land. This expectation for territorial concessions before any war-ending negotiations has left many Ukrainians feeling frustrated.
Ukrainian officials are framing their work as practical diplomacy, rather than mere preparation for a diplomatic trip. “New York is a platform every September. It’s a very important place,” commented Deputy Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya. He added that while the solutions might not be straightforward, they remain committed to continuing efforts after their time in New York.
Battlefield retreat and great losses
Despite the ongoing conflict since February 2022, Russian forces have failed to capture key areas, like the city of Pokrovsk, for several months. Even though U.S. support has diminished, it remains crucial for Ukraine, raising concerns among allies regarding military resource levels.
According to a senior European diplomat, sharing U.S. intelligence and creating mechanisms for Ukraine to procure U.S. weapons are vital for its military strength.
Zelensky noted that initial arms provided through this mechanism included the Patriot Air Defense System and Himars rocket launchers, with Ukraine securing over $2 billion in U.S. weapons funding thus far.
Diplomatic sources indicate that the urgency behind Ukraine’s military needs is evident in Zelensky’s recent statements.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk expressed that while European strategies aim to deter future conflicts, Putin is not inclined to halt the military actions in Ukraine. Kyiv’s strategy is focused on undermining Russian military success.
“The strategy is to neutralize Russia,” he stated. “This could lead to Russia’s stabilizing and perhaps ignite recovery, but without agreeing to end the war.”
Like a ritual dance
A former Ukrainian official, who wishes to remain anonymous, referred to the discussions with Trump as a call for a comprehensive sanction against Russia, while emphasizing a focus on strengthening military capabilities.
He voiced concerns over the ongoing negotiations among Europe, the U.S., and Ukraine regarding security guarantees for post-war rehabilitation. He compared the intricate, often painful process to a ritual dance, remarking, “If no lives were lost, it would be so beautiful.”
