Despite widespread skepticism among analysts and politicians, there’s still a belief that Ukraine can overcome the Russian military and reclaim its territory. Some argue that achieving victory requires a strategic approach rather than attempting direct confrontations, as Ukraine currently lacks the necessary troops and weaponry for that kind of fight.
Simplistic thinking could lead to unnecessary casualties, playing into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of attrition. To truly defeat Russia, Ukraine needs to secure its airspace first and then focus on disrupting Russian supply lines, which would isolate Russian troops from their resources.
Over the past three years, Ukraine has shown that Russian invasions come at a steep cost, evidenced by significant Russian casualties. However, ongoing support and resources are crucial to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities. The current strategies adopted by past U.S. administrations have not sufficiently turned the tide in Ukraine’s favor.
Ultimately, the objective is to define and achieve a clear endpoint for the conflict, which is to defeat the Russian military entirely.
The West must also resist succumbing to threats of nuclear escalation. These alarming narratives seem to serve the Kremlin’s agenda, aiming to instill fear in the West.
While mutually assured destruction offers a form of deterrence, the Kremlin must genuinely believe that the West is prepared to retaliate. It’s likely that we have reached a high point in Russian escalation, as Putin would not want to engage in a broader war against NATO while aiming to seize Ukraine.
Western leaders should recognize that we are, in essence, already entangled in a global conflict. Though the fighting occurs mainly within Ukraine, the arms and support distributed originate from NATO allies, while Russian forces receive assistance from countries like North Korea and even China.
Additionally, Russia has engaged in various covert operations against the West, ranging from cyber warfare to political meddling.
Recent history should clarify that negotiations with the Kremlin are unlikely to bring an end to the war. Any talk of ceasefires is often just a tactic for Russia to buy time, maintaining its current objectives.
Unlike the West, which appears uncertain, Russia has a clear vision of its endgame, which involves complete domination over Ukraine.
However, some military experts assert that Russia hasn’t achieved significant success in the conflict. The path forward for Ukraine lies in dismantling Russian ground forces and crippling their operational capabilities, effectively squeezing them from multiple angles.
This approach consists of three phases. Initially, Ukraine must target and eliminate Russian aerial threats, with the establishment of no-fly zones being essential for civilian protection. European nations are set to contribute fighter jets for this purpose, and Ukraine is actively seeking advanced air defense systems.
In mid-April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed to acquire American Patriot systems for enhanced defense against missile strikes. Various NATO allies need to step up with their own contributions as well.
Once air superiority is established, the focus can shift to identifying and neutralizing Russian military infrastructure, thus undermining their ability to initiate attacks.
The second phase revolves around restoring the flow of military supplies into Ukraine, ensuring logistics are active and effective in facilitating the ongoing fight. Precision weaponry is vital for penetrating deep into Russian positions and disrupting their artillery, impacting their frontline operations significantly.
Thirdly, the aim is to launch a decisive offensive that can capitalize on Russia’s vulnerabilities when positioned at its weakest. Maintaining pressure on Russian forces rather than allowing a ceasefire only empowers them to regroup and fortify their capabilities.
As the situation evolves, it’s crucial for Washington to learn from resilient leadership exhibited by historical figures who effectively managed wartime strategies.
Retired Colonel Jonathan Sweet has extensive experience in Army Intelligence and writes on issues of national security.
