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Ukraine war update: Direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv in three years scheduled to start in Turkey

Estonian Foreign Minister Reports NATO Airspace Violation

Estonia’s foreign minister stated that a Russian fighter jet briefly entered NATO airspace for about one minute. He characterized the incident as quite serious, noting that the aircraft was dispatched while Estonia was attempting to apprehend a Russian tanker suspected of engaging in espionage activities.

Criticism of Russian Delegation’s Composition

On Thursday, the Estonian foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, expressed frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin sending a low-ranking delegation to Turkey for discussions regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Tsahkna described this as a “slap in the face.”

Ukrainian Air Defenses Target Drones

Ukrainian officials, as reported by the state broadcaster Suspilne, indicated that air defenses successfully intercepted 62 out of 110 drones launched towards Ukraine overnight by Russia. The regions impacted included Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kyiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk.

Upcoming Peace Talks in Istanbul

Ukraine and Russia are poised to engage in their first direct discussions since the onset of Russia’s 2022 invasion. Putin suggested these talks after calls from Kyiv and European nations for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire commencing on Monday. Although President Zelensky proposed meeting Putin in Turkey, the Kremlin later announced that the Russian president would not attend, with hawkish former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky leading the delegation instead.

Turkey’s Role

Turkey has maintained neutral relations with both Russia and Ukraine throughout the conflict and has previously hosted negotiations. However, earlier discussions stalled following Russia’s withdrawal from Bucha, where atrocities were uncovered. Since then, interactions between the two sides have mainly revolved around humanitarian issues.

Stalemate on Ceasefire Agreements

Both sides appear to struggle even to agree on ceasefire terms. Although Ukraine has shown willingness for an unconditional ceasefire, Putin has rejected the norm, citing military advantages on the ground.

Potential Consequences

Zelensky emphasized that if Putin does not attend the talks, the West should consider imposing heavy sanctions on Russia. French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz warned that new sanctions could be enforced if no significant progress is made in the talks. Meanwhile, the EU has introduced another round of sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector, with additional tariffs on countries continuing to purchase from Russia being discussed in the US Senate.

Summary of Major Events

Today’s developments include:

  • Zelensky scheduled to meet Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara.
  • Putin’s delegation will not include top negotiators Lavrov or Ushakov.
  • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to join the peace talks.
  • German Chancellor Merz emphasizes the importance of West unity against a “dictated peace.”
  • A recent Russian missile attack in northeastern Ukraine resulted in civilian casualties.
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