Ukraine has been at war with Russia for more than two years with defense aid from the United States and European allies.
But as the war of attrition intensifies, Russia has made some small advances in recent days, and Ukraine is beginning to face the possibility that it will not receive further aid from the U.S. government.
“This is pretty dire, pretty serious,” George Baros, a Russian analyst and head of the geospatial intelligence team at the Institute for the Study of War, told Fox News Digital about Ukraine’s defense shortage.
As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, Ukrainian soldiers from the 24th Brigade’s mortar team are seen at a position near Tretsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
France will soon provide 78 howitzers to Ukraine to meet Kiev’s urgent needs, defense minister says
“The Ukrainians don’t really have what it takes to play a more successful defense,” he said. “The Western coalition supporting Ukraine has ensured that it will have sufficient supplies to keep them starved.”
“But we also gave them enough power to avoid a crushing defeat,” he added.
The Biden administration has pledged to continue aid to Kiev, but Congress’ inability to pass any substantive aid means Ukrainian soldiers are bearing the brunt on the front lines.
“I think it’s very likely that Russia will make a breakthrough in 2024, even if we don’t get significant supplies,” Barros said.
Kiev and other European allies have repeatedly warned that if Russian President Vladimir Putin can gain a foothold in Ukraine, he is unlikely to stop there.
Barros pointed out that while the United States is in the lead in terms of massive amounts of military aid provided to Ukraine by a single country, Europe has significantly increased spending on defense aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers conduct combat training in a forest area of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Saturday. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Russia steps up attacks on Ukrainian cities, Kiev endures shelling for third time in five days
He said that “the European Union and all its member states, including the United Kingdom, actually exceed the United States on defense alone in terms of supporting Ukraine.” “Unfortunately, when the Europeans break ground on new artillery and ammunition factories, they don’t start working right away.”
“All of a sudden you get a lot of power without having to turn it on,” he added. “It will take years.”
“But the United States must continue to play this strategic bridge role until these plants are fully operational,” Barros said.
Ammunition shortages are not the only thing slowing Ukraine’s ability to advance on the Russian front or preventing small advances.
Ukraine’s air defenses are exhausted.
Not only is Ukraine’s air defense missile inventory severely depleted and its air power weakened by years of fighting with Soviet-era fighter jets, Russia is also threatening to launch attacks against critical infrastructure deep within Ukraine’s interior. It has started.
Ukrainian soldiers from the 24th Brigade’s mortar team are seen at a position near Tretsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Lithuania’s foreign minister calls for all efforts to help Ukraine: ‘It’s a matter of the future’
Mr. Barros said the Russian military regularly conducts highly intensive bombing campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure, including dams, power plants and bridges, using cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles supplied by Iran. He explained that it is being implemented.
Although Ukraine has some air defense systems provided by international allies, such as the United States’ Patriot missile system, there are not enough defenses to protect the country’s infrastructure or front-line positions.
“The Russians have adapted over the past three months, implemented lessons learned, and demonstrated military learning in action, which is increasing the effectiveness and lethality of the Russian military.” Barros said.
“We discovered that the Russians were able to time and sequence large-scale strategic strikes against critical infrastructure in Ukraine, simultaneously running fighter-bombers to provide attack and air support for front-line ground operations. I think it means providing ‘…they are saturating the air defense bands of the Ukrainians,’ he added. ”[Kyiv has] You must choose between covering your front lines or protecting critical infrastructure in key strategic cities. ”
This photo, taken from a video released by Russia’s Ministry of Defense Press Service on March 13, shows a Ukrainian military helicopter destroyed at a jump site at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. (Russian Ministry of Defense Press Service, via AP)
This strategy allowed Russian pilots to approach Ukraine and launch glide bombs to carry out combat missions that would further destroy Ukrainian positions.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Barros warned that if Russia were to gain uncontested air superiority, it could launch a carpet bombing campaign similar to the one it is conducting in Syria.
“Frankly, there is no reason to doubt that the Russians would not do something like that,” he said.
Although Ukraine has largely been able to hold its front-line positions for several months, military experts agree it cannot do so for long.
“If the United States does not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will lose this war,” Barros said.
