High Hopes for Upcoming U.S.-China Summit

There’s a lot of anticipation building up for the upcoming summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for late October in Korea. Many people are hoping that this meeting might help ease tensions and stabilize the often fraught U.S.-China relationship amid the ongoing trade conflicts.

Yet, it’s important to remember that, well, the competition between powerful nations is pretty much a given. Even if an agreement is reached, the inherent tensions and competitive dynamics are likely to linger.

Scholars are busy trying to grapple with how U.S.-China relations have shifted since the early 2000s. There are quite a few theories out there, with “power transition” theory and the so-called “Thucydides’ trap” making compelling arguments about how changes in global power dynamics can drive conflict.

Another angle worth considering is the rise of authoritarian leaders like Trump and Xi, who are often pressured by domestic issues to adopt tougher stances abroad. For Trump, this means using immigrants and trade partners as convenient scapegoats to address economic frustrations at home. For Xi, there’s a push to confront China’s neighbors and the Western world more aggressively.

Interestingly, back during the Cold War, the U.S. saw China as an essential ally. But over time, as China modernized its military and economy, the perspective shifted. George W. Bush labeled China a “strategic competitor” in 1999, and events like the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis caused the U.S. to reconsider its strategy towards China, eventually leading to the “pivot to Asia” to counteract its rising influence.

Since then, both the Trump and Biden administrations have taken a firmer stance against China, although Biden is leaning towards a multilateral strategy involving allies to better contain Chinese ambitions. Initially, Trump’s relationship with Xi seemed friendly, but it soured with the initiation of a trade war and a campaign against China led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

In his second term, Trump kicked off a global tariff conflict while trying to “Make America Great Again.” Interestingly, both leaders seem to maintain a cordial working relationship, hinting that they might be open to negotiating their way through trade issues. It’s a bit reassuring to think they could find a productive path forward for U.S.-China relations.

As competition heats up, managing differences effectively becomes crucial to prevent a full-blown rivalry or even military conflict. Sure, competition is part of the U.S.-China dynamic now, but it doesn’t have to be destructive. If approached correctly, it could resemble a well-played sports match where rules are respected.

The future of U.S.-China relations isn’t set in stone. It’s influenced by shifting power dynamics, internal politics, and the choices made by those in leadership. The international community has a role, too, in encouraging both nations to handle their competition thoughtfully and collaboratively to avoid calamities neither desires.

The ongoing tariff disputes have underscored the reality that each side can hit back hard. China has shown resilience, not hesitating to push back against U.S. interests. Both nations need to realize that aggressive tactics can hurt them both, so finding a way to coexist is essential.

Interestingly, fierce competition might actually pave the way for improved ties. There’s a Chinese saying that goes, “There’s no friendship without fighting,” suggesting that conflict can lead to stronger relationships.

The U.S. must come to terms with the fact that China is a peer on the global stage. Any punitive move from the U.S. is likely to be met with strong resistance from China. Conversely, China must acknowledge that the U.S. still holds significant power and interests worldwide, including in Asia. With China’s economic challenges and evolving five-year plans, a more stable relationship with the West is also in its interest.

As long as both nations, along with their leaders, prioritize stable bilateral ties and fair trade—while recognizing each other’s strengths and limitations—U.S.-China competition can be constructive.