Military involvement, whether short-term or long-term, can produce an unlimited number of unintended consequences. However, a closer look at the circumstances surrounding this act allows us to understand some of the likely ramifications that would have otherwise surprised military personnel. Now that the United States is bombing Houthi targets in Yemen, let's take a look back at some of the possible unintended consequences for Israel, the United States, and the upcoming presidential election.
Just as quickly as Israel succeeded in converting world opinion sympathy after the October 7 Hamas massacre into condemnation for its brutal operations in Gaza, the US and UK fired missiles at Houthi strongholds in Yemen. As such, Western views of Israel's actions may soften even more rapidly. .
Disapproval of Israel's brutal campaign against Hamas is rapidly growing, especially among American liberals. The implications for Israel could be good news, bad news, or both, if the United States and its allies become engrossed in the fight to free the Red Sea shipping lanes, which are vital to international trade.
The bad news is that an escalation of the war against Iran's proxies could pose unprecedented risks to Israel. The good news for the Jewish state is that this scenario has the potential to weaken Western condemnation of Israel's bloodshed in Gaza.
To this day, the United States and many other Western nations perceive the October 7 and subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza as a conflagration between Israel and Hamas, a battle in which the United States is involved secondarily, rather than directly. There is. Our view of hostilities in the Middle East will broaden if the actions in Yemen and the protection of shipping lanes lead to some length of firefight with the Houthis and perhaps with Iran itself.
The United States will be Israel's partner in regional battles, where our vital interests in free commerce are at stake, not just a benefactor of countries caught in conflict. It would be natural to take a more sympathetic view of Israel as an ally in the fight against Iran's proxies.
Having a sympathetic or respectful view of Israel is of no game-changing benefit to a small country facing neighbors determined to push Israel into the sea. But it can yield significant benefits. For example, many Democratic senators, angered by the reported deaths of well over 20,000 civilians and the massive destruction of housing and infrastructure in Gaza, have expressed concern about President Biden's unilateral commitment to Israel. They object to the arms shipments and advocate for a deeper investigation into the massacre by Congress. Regarding final Congressional approval for military and economic aid in Gaza. If we find ourselves fighting Islamic extremists as allies, Democrats may return to their previous reflexive military and political support for Israel, reversing the delay in support.
Our direct action against the Houthis, or another terrorist group, could also pose a problem for Republicans. Like the Houthis, voters traditionally rally behind the president during U.S. military actions that threaten vital national interests. Engagement in the run-up to the presidential election therefore reflects a particular challenge to the Republican Party's chances of regaining the presidency.
In today's political climate, President Biden can do nothing right in the eyes of Republicans, so the dilemma is that Republicans will criticize American military action that closely resembles the kind of response President Donald Trump would have taken. will be faced with. But Republicans are well-versed in the art of contrarianism, and when commenting on Biden's entry into the fray, they use the well-worn point that if Trump had been president, they wouldn't have made things this bad in the first place. may be chanted.
When breaking a rack of balls, casual pool players have little understanding of where the balls will land. However, a veteran player or physics professor might study the velocity and trajectory of cue balls and predict where some or all of the balls will stop. On the other hand, firing Tomahawk missiles at Houthi military facilities is an activity with sufficient risks to justify careful consideration of potential unintended consequences.
Jay Sterling Silver is Professor Emeritus at St. Thomas College of Law.
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