The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to unveil its significant inflation report this month. With the continuing government shutdown, access to essential data is becoming problematic for economists. It’s kind of a critical time for the economy, you know?
Consumer price index figures for September are set to come out on October 24, which is nine days later than initially planned, as noted by the BLS.
These inflation reports hold substantial importance for policymakers, particularly now since they will significantly influence interest rate trends. Also, this month’s data will play a role in determining the Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) due by 2026.
The annual rise in Social Security benefits is linked to the average inflation data from July, August, and September.
Recent estimates suggest that the COLA for 2026 may be around 2.7%, which is slightly higher than this year’s 2.5%. However, any surprises in the September numbers could change that prediction, perhaps? It’s all a bit uncertain.
Usually, the COLA would have been announced by now, but the BLS has had to delay everything due to the shutdown.
NewsNation’s partner, The Hill, mentioned that the BLS is working to bring staff back to produce the September report.
The upcoming CPI release is essential for the Social Security Administration to meet deadlines for benefit payments. Yet, it seems other reports will remain on hold.
The agency indicated that it won’t be rescheduling or issuing more reports until normal government functions resume.
Take the September employment report, for instance; it hasn’t been released, and economists are left relying on private data to gauge the economic climate.
House Speaker Mike Johnson remarked that the shutdown could become the longest in history, telling reporters he wouldn’t negotiate with Democrats until certain issues are addressed.
If this government shutdown continues and reliable economic data stays limited, it could create challenges for the Federal Reserve when making future interest rate decisions.
The Fed recently lowered rates for the first time this year, but without fresh data, the evolving landscape remains difficult to judge. Inflation still hovers above the Fed’s 2% target, and the full consequences of heightened tariffs from prior administrations are still murky.
Nevertheless, the markets seem to expect another rate cut this month, with a staggering 99% chance being priced in for a quarter-point reduction, at least according to the CME FedWatch tool.
