Shifting Airpower Dynamics: U.S. and China Preparation for Pacific Showdown

There’s a notable shift underway in the airpower strategies of the United States and China, with both nations gearing up for a potential showdown in the Pacific. Each country seems to be banking on its technological advancements to gain an edge in aerial combat.

The U.S. is busy developing the F-47, a next-generation fighter jet, while China is working on jet designs to compete with U.S. powerhouses like the F-35 and F-22. After hitting the pause button back in 2024, the Air Force inked a deal with Boeing in March for the F-47 project. This sixth-generation jet is expected to serve as the backbone of America’s air superiority fleet, with its maiden flight slated for 2028.

Meanwhile, the B-21 Raider, which is a stealth counterpart to the B-2, is in the testing phase at Edwards Air Force Base. The goal is to procure at least 100 B-21s, engineered to operate effectively in heavily defended airspaces, particularly those of China.

The Pentagon is also leaning into cooperative combat aircraft (CCAs)—unmanned drones intended to assist manned jets like “loyal wingmen.” Prototypes developed by companies such as Anduril and General Atomics are already seeing flight tests, which, according to officials, will enable one pilot to manage several drones simultaneously.

While China excels in the commercial drone sector, it’s unclear if that translates into military advantage. Eric Heginbotham, a researcher at MIT’s Center for International Studies, notes that the U.S. maintains a significant lead in advanced military drones, which are essential for future conflicts. He highlights U.S. stealth reconnaissance drones, like the RQ-170 and RQ-180, as examples of this technological edge.

China’s Accelerating Modernization

As the U.S. rearranges its military strategies, China is rapidly modernizing its air power. The Chinese focus seems to be on three main areas: stealth technology, engine development, and expanding aircraft carrier capabilities—historically constraints on its military might.

The Chengdu J-20, China’s flagship stealth fighter, features a new WS-15 engine aimed at rivaling U.S. equivalents. However, Heginbotham points out that while it has moved beyond the limitations of the fifth generation, it still lacks some essential performance characteristics found in American jets like the F-22.

Additionally, China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was commissioned this fall. This is significant as it’s equipped with electromagnetic catapults, akin to those on the U.S. Ford-class carriers, which allows China to project air power further than its shores via stealth jets.

With the J-20, carrier-based J-35, and Fujian, China is building a multi-layered air power network. In a way, it’s becoming a land and sea force with broad missile capabilities. Chinese military documents identify the airfields as vital vulnerabilities, with operational guidelines suggesting attacks on these sites early in any conflict to hinder enemy operations.

This raises concerns for U.S. bases in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam, which analysts like Mark Cancian believe could be easily targeted. His insights from war games suggest that the Chinese strategy of missile saturation could severely jeopardize U.S. air operations in these regions.

Converging Objectives, Divergent Strategies

Despite differing strategies, both nations aim for air superiority over the Pacific. The U.S. is banking on a smaller fleet of advanced aircraft connected by sensors and AI, aimed at striking first from afar. On the flip side, China leans toward overwhelming its opponent with sheer numbers of jets, missiles, and carrier operations.

However, both militaries share a key challenge: surviving within a battleground that is increasingly threatening. While China’s missile advancements have kept U.S. aircraft at bay, American bombers and drones are engineered for penetration.

Understanding Future Combat Scenarios

Heginbotham emphasizes that survivability, rather than traditional dogfights, will shape the next decade of air combat. He suggests we’re not facing a scenario akin to World War II, where aircraft engage one another in open skies. The real concern, he argues, is the vulnerability of air bases themselves.

China, he points out, is already adapting to this reality by strengthening its own air bases, while he feels the U.S. has not been as proactive. The findings from Cancian’s wargames suggested that U.S. ships and aircraft might face early missile strikes and could be forced to retreat when conflict arises.

In the initial stages of a conflict, Cancian notes, China could have a distinct advantage, although the U.S. could regroup over time as it builds up its military resources.

Looking Ahead

The upcoming U.S. fiscal budget for 2026-27 will play a crucial role in how quickly initiatives like the F-47 and B-21 can materialize—these systems will be critical for shaping U.S. air power in the 2030s. Despite rapid Chinese modernization, the U.S. still holds an advantage in stealth technology and combat experience. Heginbotham insists that safeguarding U.S. aircraft, regardless of type, will be essential for effective operations in the Asian theater.

Ultimately, the capacity to ensure the survivability and distribution of firepower will be key to maintaining a competitive edge in this evolving landscape. For a long time, U.S. air superiority was taken for granted; however, in the Pacific, that dominance is increasingly put to the test.