Market Forecast – Gold Price, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
- of USD Moves without certainty of direction ahead of U.S. on Monday consumer price index data
- January US inflation report will capture market attention on Tuesday
- This article focuses on the following technical perspectives: gold price, USD/JPY and GBP/USD
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Most read: EUR/USD Forecast – US Inflation Data Drives Market Sentiment, Breakdown
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, traded nervously at the start of the new week, bouncing around the flatline without making much progress in either direction amid mixed U.S. Treasury yields.
The calm movements in foreign exchange rates on Monday were due to low volatility and a cautious stance ahead of the release of the January Consumer Price Index on Tuesday morning, an event that will have a big impact on the US economic calendar. This is thought to be the cause.
The next report is expected to show that annual headline inflation has slowed to 2.9% from 3.4% last month, a welcome development for the U.S. central bank. Core CPI is also seen falling, but at a slower pace, from 3.9% in December to 3.7%.
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To assess potential market reactions to data on key financial assets, traders should look at how official results compare to consensus forecasts, paying particular attention to trends in core indicators. there is.
If disinflationary progress stalls and CPI numbers unexpectedly turn higher, yields and the US dollar are likely to extend the recent rebound, weighing on gold prices. The persistence of inflation could delay the Fed’s first rate cut, making it less likely that aggressive easing will be implemented in 2024.
On the other hand, the opposite reaction can occur if the CPI number is lower than expected, especially if the outlier is large. Under these circumstances, bond yields and the US dollar could fall sharply in the short term, pushing up precious metal prices in the process.
For a comprehensive overview of gold’s medium-term outlook, incorporating insights from fundamental and technical analysis, download our Q1 trading forecast now.
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Gold Price Prediction – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) fell on Monday, but losses were limited as the precious metal lacked strong directional conviction, a sign of market indecision. The $2.065 resistance or $2.005 support would need to be abandoned to develop a more attractive trade setup.
If the resistance breaks out, it could quickly move towards $2,085. If the bulls continue to perform well, the focus will soon shift to the all-time high near $2,150. On the contrary, if the support is broken, the attention will be at $1,990, then he will be at $1,975. Below this area, the next significant technical floor is at $1,965.
gold price technical chart
Gold price chart created using TradingView
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|
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
| every day | 19% | 2% | 6% |
| weekly | 3% | 2% | 2% |
USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY rose slightly on Monday and held above technical support at 148.90. If the price moves higher in the coming days, resistance will appear around the psychological 150.00 level. The bulls may have a hard time breaking through this barrier, but if a bullish breakout occurs, it is likely to retest the 152.00 area.
On the other hand, if the pair turns down and breaks through the support at 148.90, the selling momentum could accelerate and set the stage for a pullback towards 147.40. Further losses from this point could bring attention to the 146.00 handle, followed by the 50-day simple moving average at 145.50.
USD/JPY technical chart
USD/JPY chart created using TradingView
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GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
After selling off at the beginning of the month, GBP/USD made a gradual comeback, regaining its 200-day simple moving average and consolidating above the 1.2600 handle. If the pullback in cable continues over the next few trading sessions, resistance will approach 1.2675 (50-day SMA) and then 1.2740.
Conversely, if GBP/USD resumes its bearish reversal and falls below 1.2600, trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average will appear at 1.2565. The bull needs to protect this technical zone with all his might. Otherwise, it could head towards 1.2500.
