You may have thought it would never happen, but the day has come. After months of unsettling uncertainty and an endless series of history-making events, the US presidential election is (finally) coming to an end.
Americans, like so many people around the world, are huddled around their television and cell phone screens to find out whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.
Although Harris and Trump offer fundamentally different visions for America's future and its role on the world stage, Joe Biden shocked the nation in July by abandoning his bid for re-election. Since then, the election race has remained close.
Results will begin to be announced Tuesday night, giving the public their first clue as to which party will control not only the White House but also Congress. Below is an hour-by-hour guide on how to watch election night like an expert.
6:00 PM ET (3:00 PM PT, 11:00 PM GMT, 10:00 AM AEDT): Voting begins to close
Initial voting ends at 6 p.m. ET in eastern Kentucky and most of Indiana. Democratic expectations are low in the two Republican-leaning states, with Mr. Trump virtually guaranteed to win both states and Republicans expected to easily control most of the House seats in the two states.
Latest: President Trump wins red states Kentucky and Indiana
7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT, midnight GMT, 11:00 AM AEDT): Polls are completely closed in six states, including Georgia.
Americans will get their first clue about the outcome of the presidential election at 7pm ET when voting ends in the battleground state of Georgia. Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after President Trump won Georgia by 5 points four years ago. Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the Peach State this year, according to Guardian pollsters, but a good night for Democrats could put Georgia back in the win column.
As Georgia begins counting votes, voting also closes in Virginia, with both parties seeking to flip House seats. Republicans aim to expand their narrow majority in the House, and results in Virginia's 2nd and 7th Congressional Districts could provide early indicators of the party's success.
And early results in Florida, where most if not all polls end at 7 p.m., could also provide a telling hint. Florida has been particularly efficient in counting votes, so its early results will be one of the first big tests of the night. In addition to Harris' long-term hopes of flipping a state won twice by Trump, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel Powell will hold the seat of Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who has maintained a poll lead in the race. trying to steal. An upset victory for Mucarsel-Powell in Florida could allow Democrats to retain their Senate majority.
Latest article: President Trump wins Florida
7:30pm (4:30pm ET, 12:30am GMT, 11:30am AEDT): Voting ends in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia
Trump won North Carolina by one point in 2020 and by three points in 2016, and a loss in this battleground state could decide the former president's fate. Democrats are also hopeful of winning the North Carolina gubernatorial race, given recent revelations about Republican Mark Robinson's disturbing internet activities.
Meanwhile, the results in Ohio and West Virginia could determine control of the Senate. Republicans are expected to win the seat in West Virginia, where independent Sen. Joe Manchin has decided not to seek re-election. And Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown faces a tough race in Ohio. If Republicans win both races, Democrats' current 51-49 advantage in the Senate would disappear.
Latest: President Trump wins West Virginia
Latest: President Trump wins Ohio
Latest: President Trump wins North Carolina
8pm ET (5pm PT, 1am GMT, 12pm AEDT): Opinion polls have completely ended in 16 states, including Pennsylvania.
This will be a pivotal moment in the presidential election. Winning Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes has a far better chance of winning the White House, a fact acknowledged by both candidates who have swept the battleground state in recent weeks.
Pennsylvania also hosts some of the most competitive legislative elections in the nation. A good night for Republicans could flip the seat of incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who is running against former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick.
But if Democrats have a particularly strong night, they could set their sights on Florida, where final voting closes at 8 p.m. ET. Most polls in Michigan also close at 8 p.m. ET, but those voting in a small number of counties that observe Central Standard Time will have an extra hour to vote.
8:30 PM ET (5:30 PM PT, 1:30 AM GMT, 12:30 PM AEDT): Voting has ended in Arkansas.
There won't be much suspense in Arkansas, as Trump is expected to win easily in the solidly Republican state. Arkansas has the distinction of being the only state where polls end at 8:30 p.m. ET, but most Americans' attention has trickled out of battleground states by this point in the evening. I'll be keeping an eye on the results.
Latest: Trump wins Arkansas
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9pm ET (6pm PT, 2am GMT, 1pm AEDT): Polls are completely closed in 15 states, including Michigan and Wisconsin.
This would be a decisive moment for Harris. In 2016, Mr. Trump was propelled to the White House by his ability to narrowly win the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but four years later, Mr. Biden won all three battleground states. won.
The states where Ms. Harris is most likely to win 270 electoral votes this year are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Mr. Trump could secure a second term if he wins any of these states. There is.
Michigan and Wisconsin will also play potentially decisive roles in the battle for Congress. Democrats currently hold two seats in the state Senate that are contested this year, and a Republican victory in either election could give them a majority. Michigan's 7th Congressional District was left vacant after Elissa Slotkin chose to run for the Senate rather than seek re-election. explained It has been rated as “the most competitive open seat in Japan.''
In New York, polls also close at 9 p.m. ET, giving Democrats a chance to flip some House seats won by Republicans in 2022. If successful, it could give Democrats a House majority. And after a far better-than-expected result in the famous Selzer poll in Iowa, Democrats are hoping to flip two House seats in the Hawkeye State, where polling also ends. There is.
10pm ET (7pm PT, 3am GMT, 2pm AEDT): Voting is completely closed in Nevada, Montana, and Utah.
Harris wants to keep Nevada in her column, as Democratic presidential candidates have won every election in the state since 2008. Trump previously led in Nevada polls, but Harris narrowed the gap in the final weeks of the campaign.
Two more Senate races also end at this point in the evening. Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen is favored to retain her seat in Nevada, but fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's prospects look bleak in Montana.
If Republicans do not have a Senate majority by the time the Montana polls close, this could be the moment when Republicans officially take control of the Senate.
Latest article: President Trump wins Montana and Utah
11pm ET (8pm PT, 4am GMT, 3pm AEDT): Polls are completely closed in four states, including California.
Harris is virtually guaranteed a victory in her home state of California, where the House race is critical to control of Congress. Five Republican members of the House of Representatives are facing close races in California. cook political reportthus this state represents Democrats' best chance to regain the House majority.
Latest: Harris wins California
12:00 AM ET (9:00 PM PT, 5:00 AM GMT, 4:00 PM AEDT): Voting ends in most of Hawaii and Alaska
By the time polls conclude in Hawaii and most of Alaska, Americans should have a better idea of who will move into the White House in January. But if 2020 is any indication, the public may have to wait a little longer before a final decision is made on who won the presidential election.
In 2020, the Associated Press did not declare Biden the winner of the presidential election until 11:26 a.m. ET on November 7, four days after the first round of voting closed. And in 2016, it took until 2:29 a.m. ET the morning after Election Day for Trump to be declared the winner.
Given how close the race for the White House is expected to be, Americans may have to settle for a long night, or even a week, to find out who their next president will be.
Latest article: Harris wins in Hawaii
Read more of the Guardian's 2024 US election coverage
