Life expectancy in the United States, which already lags behind many other developed countries and ranks 49th in the world in 2022, will fall further to 66th by 2050, according to a new report. .
According to an analysis by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, the average life expectancy of Americans in that year is expected to be 80.4 years, rising to 79.9 years in 2035 and 78.3 years in 2022. Published in this week's Lancet magazine.
This modest increase has left our country behind other countries, leading researchers to decry an looming “public health crisis of unimaginable proportions.”
However, life expectancy is not equal across the United States. New York State is projected to have the highest life expectancy in the United States by 2050, ranking They are ranked 41st in the world, dropping from 33rd place in 2022.
IHME noted that national life expectancy growth has not kept pace with other countries. The United States' global ranking is expected to drop to 66th out of 204 countries and regions by 2050.
“Despite modest increases in overall life expectancy, our model predicts that improvements in health will slow due to rising obesity rates. Obesity is a significant risk for many chronic diseases. factor, and is predicted to skyrocket to unprecedented levels.” said IHME Director Christopher J.L. Murray..
“Rising rates of obesity and overweight in the United States, which IHME predicts will affect more than 260 million people by 2050, represent a public health crisis of unimaginable proportions.” added Murray, co-senior author of the study.
More than 100 million American adults are obese, and more than 22 million of these adults are considered severely obese. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Obesity significantly increases your risk for type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, certain types of cancer, and stroke, among other chronic diseases.
The IHME estimated that eliminating risk factors such as obesity, high blood sugar and high blood pressure by 2050 could extend lifespans by 12.4 million people.
IHME also analyzed U.S. health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), which is the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health.
The United States' HALE world ranking is projected to drop from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.
“The United States' rapid decline in world rankings from 2022 to 2050 is a wake-up call for immediate action,” said Stein Emil Volset, co-senior author and affiliated professor at IHME. he said. “The United States must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that will slow the decline in future health outcomes.”
The health of women, especially in the United States, is expected to show little or no improvement over the next several decades.
IHME predicted that HALE for women will decline in 20 states by 2050, including Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana.
IHME said reductions in mortality rates for women and men related to heart disease, stroke and diabetes were partially offset by increases in fatal drug overdose rates.
“The opioid epidemic is far from over, and we still need improved effectiveness and continued expansion of drug use prevention and treatment programs,” said study lead author Ali Mokdad from IHME.
Smoking also remains a problem. IHME estimates that 2.1 million people could live longer by 2050 if smoking rates were significantly reduced.
This is not the first time public health experts have sounded the alarm about stalling growth in life expectancy in the United States. recent research He argued that the greatest impact on longevity lies in the rearview mirror, as modern medicine has yielded only modest improvements.
The study's author, S. Jay Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, told the Post that people should exercise, eat a healthy diet, be well-educated, take their doctor-prescribed medications, and He said you can extend your life by avoiding tobacco and recreational activities. drugs.
