USDCAD 10 min
USD/CAD rose as much as 1.4373 today, but trimmed it at 40 pips and it was unchanged for the day.
The pair began climbing 40 pipes after today's Canadian retail sales data. Mixed with that move was a wider US dollar rally as the stock market was beaten. As for retail sales reports, I'm not selling with the idea that it's a bad thing and not CIBC either. CIBC highlighted that a 0.6% decrease (vs -0.4%Exp) came after a 2.6% increase in December.
“The weakness in January and February is a return to more trendy-like activities and does not seem to be the cause of concern,” CIBC writes.
In particular, the pre-estimation for February was -0.4%, which is not bad in light of all tariff concerns, but Clean Lead will be subject to carbon tax removal on April 1st following the HST holidays from December 15th to February 15th.
CIBC:
Consumer spending was clearly improving in response to the low interest rates in H2 2024. Then, examining volatility indicates normalization of Q1 activity after the onset of the GST holiday. However, tariff uncertainty may take note that, depending on the April 2nd tariff outcome, move forward with concerns about employment outlook. Therefore, consumption could be slower in the first half of the year, but will accelerate in H2 and 2026 if the worst tariff scenario is avoided.
As for Rooney, today's rebound was helped by Trump as he said he was “flexible” with tariffs. Canada is one of the nations of the cross, but Trump is almost finding allies with his push to make it the 51st state. Considering the US operates manufacturing, it's also strange about his subsidies to the Canadian industry. surplus With Canada. The driver behind the US trade deficit with Canada is purely oil, which is sold south at a discount.
That said, Deputy Trump suggests a fresh position on April 2, which is avoidable in the worst case scenario. I can't imagine getting a move from the range 1.42-1.45.
