- Indianlpy lost momentum in the early European transactions on Monday.
- Concerns about US dollars, overseas spills, and Indian economic deceleration are the weight of Indianlpy.
- The Fed interest rate decision will attract attention on Friday.
Indo -Lupy (INR) was a little cheaper on Monday after the previous transaction recorded a weekly increase rate in about 17 months. US dollar (USD) has fallen in response to US President Donald Trump's immediate tariffs on major trading partners, and has supported its own currency. In addition, the intervening of India Bank (RBI) in the foreign exchange market and a decline in crude oil prices may help limit the loss of INR.
Nevertheless, new green back demand from importers, the outflow of overseas portfolio investors (FPI) from the Indian stock market, and concerns about Indian economic deceleration can have some pressure on INR. Attention is focused on the interest rate decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday, but no interest rate changes are expected. Traders will be inspired by a press conference on this year's interest rate outlook.
In the global economic outlook and the headwind of the macro economy, Indianlpy looks vulnerable
- According to RBI on Friday, the Indian foreign currency reserve has decreased to $ 623,980 million, the lowest level in about 11 months as of January 17.
- The HSBC Indian Product Purchase Bureau's Economy Index (PMI) bulletin value in January was 58.0, which improved from 56.4 in December.
- The Indian service industry PMI fell 56.8 in January, from 59.3 last month. The comprehensive PMI fell 57.9 in January, fell from 59.2 last month.
- “In the Indian manufacturing industry, the production volume and new orders have recovered from the relatively low -tone, and the start of this year has been performed well. Good news for the manufacturing industry, “said HSBC's leading Economist Prandjur Bandari.
- The US S & P World General PMI in January fell 52.4, 55.4 in December.
- The US S & P world manufacturing PMI in January rose from the previous 49.4 to 50.1, exceeding the expected 49.6. The service PMI fell in January 52.8, from the previous 56.8, below 56.5, a market consensus.
- U.S. used housing sales in December rose 2.2%from the previous month, increasing from 4.15 million to 4.24 million units.
USD/INR draws a positive image in the long term
Indo -lupies were traded in a negative area on this day. The USD/INR pair is traded in the downward triangle pattern, and the daily chart is fully supported than the major 100 -day index transfer average (EMA), so the constructive view of the USD/INR pair. Is not impaired. Furthermore, the 14 -day relative power index (RSI) exceeds the middle line around 58.35, suggesting that the rising trend is more likely to resume than reversing.
The important USD/INR, which is the highest in history of 86.69. A bullish breakout that exceeds this level can rise to the 87.00 psychological mark.
Conversely, the initial support level is seen at 86.14, the low of January 24. If the sale continues below the mentioned level, it may fall to the next bear target value to 85.85, the low on January 10. 85.65, which is a low on January 7.
Frequently Asked Questions about Indianlpie
Indian (INR) is one of the most susceptible currencies affected by external factors. The price of crude oil (this country greatly depends on the import of oil), the value of the US dollar (most trade is performed in the US dollar), and the level of overseas investment will be all affected. The direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Indian Bank of India (RBI) to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, and the rates set by the RBI are factors that have a greater impact on rupees.
India Bank (RBI) is actively intervening in the foreign exchange market to maintain a stable exchange rate and promote trade. In addition, RBI is trying to maintain inflation to 4 % by adjusting interest rates. Usually, rupees rise when interest rates rise. This is due to the role of the “carry trade” in which investors borrowed in countries with low interest rates, funds in countries with relatively high interest rates, and gain profits by the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that affect rupees include inflation, interest rates, economic growth (GDP), trade balance, and inflow from overseas investments. The higher the growth rate, the increased overseas investment and the rupees may increase. If the negative trade balance decreases, it will ultimately lead to rupees. Increased interest rates, especially real interest rates (deducted from interest rates), are positive for rupees. The risk -on environment can lead to an increase in the inflow of overseas direct investment and indirect investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit from rupees.
Inflation rates are generally negative for currency, especially if they are relatively higher than in India's countries, reflecting the decline in currency value due to excessive supply. Inflation increases export costs, increasing rupees to buy foreign imports, and is negative. At the same time, the rise in inflation is usually a positive for rupees, as the demands of overseas investors are increasing, which usually leads to interest rates for the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI). If inflation is reduced, the opposite effect applies.
