Concerns Grow Over U.S. Soybean Purchases by China

OMAHA, Neb. – Recently released data from the Department of Agriculture has cast doubt on the Trump administration’s claims about China’s upcoming soybean purchases. These statements followed a high-stakes meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month.

A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that since their meeting in South Korea, China has only bought 332,000 tons of U.S. soybeans—quite a bit short of the 12 million tons Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned China would acquire by January. It’s also nowhere near the 25 million tons that China supposedly promised over the next three years.

Many American farmers anticipated that their main customers would resume buying crops, but Tanner Emke, chief economist for Corbank’s grains and oilseeds, pointed out that right now, China has little reason to buy U.S. soybeans. Interestingly, they’ve stockpiled a lot already after importing heavily from Brazil and other South American nations this year. The existing prices for U.S. soybeans remain higher than Brazilian, which doesn’t help, of course.

“We’re still far from the numbers being discussed in the U.S.,” Emke stated.

As for the Chinese government, they haven’t officially confirmed any specifics. They’ve only indicated that an “agreement” to boost agricultural trade was reached. Emke suggested that even if China did promise purchases, it might only proceed if the prices were favorable.

President Trump stated that his team had discussions with Chinese officials who indicated they would buy more soybeans, although he didn’t clarify how much that would be.

“They’re going to buy a lot of soybeans, not just a few,” he told reporters, yet China’s tariffs on U.S. beans remain steep at around 24%, even if they did see a 10-point reduction after the summit.

On Friday, the price of soybeans dropped by 23 cents to $11.24 a bushel. Emke remarked that the market seemed taken aback by the diminished Chinese demand reflected in the most recent USDA report. Prices, however, remain above where they were prior to the deal, around $10.60 per bushel. Without notable new purchases, though, it seems probable that prices will continue to decline.

In conjunction with signing the trade agreement, President Trump had promised farmers an aid package to help cope with the ongoing trade conflict with China. This aid is currently on hold amid the government shutdown, leaving uncertainty about whether such support will materialize as it did during his initial term.

Farmers have been through challenging times before. Back in 2020, following a trade pact, China began to purchase substantial amounts of U.S. agricultural goods. However, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic disrupted trade, leading to a significant decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China despite hitting record highs in 2022.

Interestingly, even in light of China’s typical purchases—amounting to around a quarter of U.S. soybean production—prices are marginally higher than last year. This can be attributed to steady domestic demand driven by a rise in biodiesel production, even though this year’s soybean harvest is expected to be somewhat lower.

Yet, many farmers are grappling with rising costs across the board—fertilizers, seeds, equipment, and labor—all affecting their profit margins. Caleb Ragland, president of the U.S. Soybean Association and a farmer from Kentucky, expressed concern that many farmers could face severe financial difficulty without substantial purchases or support from the government.

Ragland remains hopeful for Chinese purchases but admits it’s hard to be certain given the low sales figures reported so far.

“I don’t want to assume they won’t follow through. But it’s going to be a relief when the soybeans are delivered, and the payment is finalized,” Ragland commented.

China is the world’s leading soybean buyer, having spent over $12.5 billion on U.S. soybeans from a total of about $24.5 billion exported last year.

However, with the imposition of tariffs by President Trump, China halted U.S. soybean imports and turned its attention toward South America. Before this trade conflict began, U.S. exports accounted for over 70% of China’s soybean imports, a figure that has since plummeted to around 21%, according to data from the World Bank.

Ragland noted that all the dealers he’s spoken with are raising prices for the next year, indicating that pressure on farmers is likely to persist.

“We’re still anticipating significant losses, and there’s still much uncertainty moving into fiscal 2026,” he remarked.