U.S. and Venezuela Tensions: A Complex Situation

As tensions rise between Washington and the Maduro government, experts indicate that while Venezuela’s military might appear strong on paper, it has been significantly weakened by years of corruption and political manipulation. They question whether Venezuela could effectively counter an aggressive U.S. action, suggesting that any large-scale operation would be much more intricate than what’s been proposed by the U.S. administration.

Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who has publicly criticized his government, described Venezuela as a state overrun by drug-trafficking organizations. He noted that the country is like “a fortress built on sand,” claiming that any U.S. action should focus on driving out terrorist groups, not on invading Venezuela itself.

Medina expressed concerns regarding the dense civilian population, which also suffers under the regime, emphasizing the need for extreme caution. “The only acceptable strategy is one that demonstrates significant restraint and careful planning,” he said.

Military Capabilities

Medina pointed out that the actual capabilities of Venezuela’s military are not as impressive as they seem, mentioning that equipment often suffers from neglect and that many generals are politically appointed and disconnected from lower-ranking troops—many of whom might desert if pressured.

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that the primary threat from Venezuela is its air and naval capabilities, but asserted that these could be swiftly neutralized. “Air and sea threats can likely be dealt with within the first couple of days,” he stated.

Montgomery indicated that any U.S. military strategy that targets cocaine production would begin with attacking airfields and missile systems to prevent retaliation.

The Challenge of Ground Operations

Despite the potential for quick air strikes, Montgomery warned that ground operations would be a different challenge entirely. With around 65,000 to 70,000 professional soldiers, many might not have the desire to fight. Additionally, large militias exist that are motivated by loyalty to Maduro, which complicates the situation further.

Geographically, he noted, Venezuela’s vast size—roughly double that of California—makes ground operations particularly daunting. “And with a population of 35 to 40 million, it could turn into a complicated counter-insurgency operation,” he concluded, admitting, “I wouldn’t do this today; I don’t recommend it.”

Concerns about Venezuela’s International Ties

Montgomery asserted support for air operations, suggesting they could be more effective than naval tactics based on past experiences in tackling drug trafficking. However, he cautioned that intelligence about these operations can often be unreliable.

Despite a steady decline, Venezuela still maintains a varied military inventory that includes advanced hardware from various countries. This ongoing situation worries U.S. officials, especially given Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia, and China.

Jorge Jaraisati, who leads the Economic Inclusion Group, pointed out that only about 20% of Venezuelans are in favor of the current regime. He highlighted that for years, the people’s will has been overlooked due to Caracas’s alignment with an anti-Western agenda that destabilizes the region.