Vietnam Ends Two-Child Policy to Address Declining Birth Rate

Vietnam has officially ended its long-standing two-child policy, aiming to rejuvenate its youth in light of an ageing population. This change was enacted by the country’s communist parliament through a new amendment that seeks to lift decades of restrictions on family size.

In recent years, Vietnamese families have been having fewer children. The birth rate has dropped to 1.91 children per woman as of 2024. This trend is particularly noticeable in urban centers like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where the escalating cost of living plays a significant role.

The original two-child restrictions were first implemented in northern Vietnam during the 1960s as a measure to combat overpopulation. Following Vietnam’s reunification, similar policies were adopted nationwide, with the idea of shaping a “golden population.” The approach was formalized into national policy in 1993 to further control population growth.

According to data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the percentage of citizens under 15 years old has witnessed a steep decline, dropping from 43% to below 25% overall. Meanwhile, the demographic aged 15 to 64 years has grown from 53% to 69%, highlighting a significant shift in the population structure.

A study indicated that the birth rate experienced a steady decline until 2003, followed by a gradual increase until around 2013, after which there was another significant drop.

Vietnam’s current population is estimated at over 110 million, making it the 16th most populous country in the world. While this “Golden Population” concept was launched in 2007 with expectations for improvements by 2038 to 2040, the declining birth rate poses challenges.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Health has highlighted the issue of gender-selective childbirth, which has exacerbated gender imbalances in the country. The birth ratio increased from 103 boys to 100 girls in 2006 to about 111 boys to 100 girls by 2024. To address this, the ministry is suggesting increasing fines for such practices to between 30 million and 100 million Vietnamese dong (approximately $1,150 to $4,000).

This move comes amid broader discussions on population control, echoing earlier approaches taken by neighboring countries like China, which implemented its own one-child policy in 1979. Despite easing restrictions in 2021, China has struggled to reverse its declining birth rates.