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Virginia close race: Initial insights from the Democratic primaries

Virginia close race: Initial insights from the Democratic primaries

Virginia’s Democratic primary on Tuesday featured a tightly contested race for the positions of lieutenant governor and attorney general.

While Decision Desk HQ did not make any calls late Tuesday night, both Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) and former Delegate Jay Jones (D) claimed victory in their respective contests.

This election is shaping up to be significant as we move towards the 2025 off-year elections.

Here are three important observations from Tuesday night’s primary:

Potential Racial Upset in the Lieutenant Governor’s Race

Entering Tuesday, the frontrunners for lieutenant governor included former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D), state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D), and Hashmi.

By 10 PM, Hashmi was leading with 27.5% of the vote, closely followed by Stoney at 26.6%. Rouse was slightly behind Stoney with 26.2% support, according to DDHQ.

Although the race was not officially called, Hashmi declared her win shortly after 10 PM.

Hashmi’s victory is significant, particularly given her backing from progressive figures like Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), while Stoney had endorsements from more prominent names, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and ex-Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

In terms of fundraising, Hashmi managed to maintain a close footing. The Virginia Public Access Project shows Stoney raised over $2 million, Rouse amassed $1.8 million, and Hashmi brought in just over $1.7 million.

If Hashmi officially claims the primary win, it could reflect poorly on significant endorsers like Buttigieg and McAuliffe.

This loss would be particularly striking for Buttigieg, who’s mulling a presidential run in 2028.

Jay Jones’s Win and Energy Stakeholders’ Loss

The race for Attorney General has proven to be a fierce competition.

Late Tuesday night, the Associated Press called the race for former Delegate Jay Jones (D), although DDHQ has yet to make an announcement.

Both Jones and the Virginia Democratic Party have declared their successes.

“For those federal Democrats who backed this campaign, I’m honored to accept your nomination for Attorney General. I’m ready to take on this fight and win in November,” said Jones.

He faced Shannon Taylor, the U.S. Attorney for Henrico County.

In this contest, influential energy donors were split between the candidates. Last week, Clean Virginia ran a major ad campaign against Taylor.

Jones had the support of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), along with McAuliffe and former Governor Ralph Northam. Like Buttigieg, Booker is viewed as a potential candidate for the presidency in 2028.

Come November, Jones will go up against incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares.

Jones is likely to highlight the need for legal challenges against President Trump as he enters the general election. Throughout the primary, both he and Taylor emphasized how they could take action against Trump if elected as Attorney General.

Jones mentioned to WRIC that the role of Virginia’s Attorney General “at this moment” and “in this chaotic administration” is crucial.

Strong Early Voter Participation

Early voting turnout for Tuesday’s Democratic primary was markedly high.

By June 15, over 204,000 Virginians had participated in early voting, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Out of these, more than 189,000 votes were registered in the Democratic primary, compared to just over 124,000 in the 2021 Democratic primary.

No matter the final results, the high turnout could signal optimism for Democrats heading into November. The enthusiasm among primary voters may bode well, given that the upcoming general election is shaping up to be a referendum on the current Trump administration.

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