Virginia's next gubernatorial election in 2025 is poised to make history, with two women likely to hold the Republican and Democratic ticket.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Virginia) are the clear front-runners of their respective parties, followed closely by Republicans and Democrats.
If Earl Sears and Spanberger win their respective primaries, one of them will become the Commonwealth's first female governor. And if Earl Sears wins the general election, she will become the first black woman to lead the state that was once the capital of the Confederacy.
Bob Holdsworth, a veteran political analyst in Virginia, said, “Republicans have been very slow in recruiting, and Democrats have been relying on women voters, especially African-American women voters, but they have not been able to get women voters into positions.'' It wasn't very helpful in getting promoted.”
The last woman to run for the general election for Virginia's governor's mansion was former Democratic state Attorney General Mary Sue Terry in 1993. She lost by more than 17 points to then-Democratic Congressman. George Allen (R-Va.). In the same year's off-season election, then-Republican Christine Todd Whitman became the first female governor of New Jersey.
Ahead of the Commonwealth's final gubernatorial race in 2021, women ran in Virginia's Republican convention and Democratic primary. Former state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) ran in the Republican convention, which was ultimately won by Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R). Two black women, current members of the House of Representatives, ran in the Democratic primary. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) and state Sen. Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) ran, but both lost to former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D). The former governor received 62% of the primary vote.
But four years later, Earl Sears and Spanberger nearly won the Republican and Democratic primaries. Youngkin, perhaps the most important supporter in the state's Republican primary, has officially endorsed Earl Sears. The governor also endorsed state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) for re-election, ending speculation that Miyares and Earl Sears would face off in the primary.
Meanwhile, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) withdrew his candidacy for governor in April, avoiding a potential primary against Spanberger, who announced his candidacy more than a year ago. Ta.
“It's really important that not only are there two women running, but both parties seem to be making some sort of space for women, which we haven't necessarily seen.” said Debbie Walsh, director of the American Women's Center. in political science from Rutgers University.
Although women's overall representation in Congress and state legislatures across the country has gradually increased, the number of female governors remains significantly lower.
“It's been a little difficult overall for women to get into those positions,” Walsh said, adding, “There's this idea that women work better in collaborations and on committees, and this is something that's been passed down in the legislature. “But it's not very suitable for a chief executive officer.”
Forty-nine women have served as governor, and only 12 women currently hold the position. When New Hampshire Governor-elect Kelly Ayotte (Republican) takes office next year, that number will temporarily increase to 14, with Delaware Lt. Gov. Bethany Halllong (Democratic) taking over from Governor John Carney. ( D) resign to become mayor of Wilmington. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (Republican) will resign from her post to serve as President-elect Donald Trump's Secretary of Homeland Security, bringing the number of governors back to 12.
The United States has never had a black female governor.
History shows that women voters, especially black women voters, will be a deciding factor in Virginia's off-year elections next year.
“Virginia is also interesting because after the election of Donald Trump in 2016, Virginia was the first state to show large-scale political mobilization of women in Congressional elections, with record numbers of women ran for Congress and also lost, with incumbents being supported at a much higher rate than anyone expected, which foreshadowed the story of 2018,” Walsh said. .
According to exit polls, former Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won 61% of female voters that year, while his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie won 39% of the female vote. In the same election, 11 of the 14 seats Democrats won in the same age group went to female candidates. In the 2018 midterm elections, three Democratic women, Spanberger, Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton and former Rep. Elaine Luria, ousted the state's three incumbent Republicans.
“The wild card for Sears is clearly Trump, who is historically unpopular in Virginia,” Holdsworth said.
Still, Trump was able to improve his position in Virginia on election day, going from losing the state by 10 points in 2020 to winning the state by just over 5 points in 2024. I ended up losing it.
Black women, one of the few groups President Trump failed to advance in 2024, will also be key in Virginia next year.
“They're going to be a strong force in that race,” Walsh said. “While we know that women are generally more likely to support Democratic candidates, there is wide variation, and black women are the strongest group for Democratic candidates, regardless of the gender of the candidate. ”
As a Republican, Sears is likely to face headwinds with black women voters. But Spanberger will also face the challenge of energizing the state's influential black vote, something she hasn't had to do on a large scale in previous legislative races.
“Certainly she has to do well in the African-American community, and she's never had to do that before,” Holdsworth said. “Democrats need to remove more people from the African American community than ever before, but there were setbacks from 2020-24.”
However, it may be difficult to apply trends from the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race.
“There will probably be a million fewer people voting in this election than in the presidential election,” Holdsworth said. “In an election where 1 million people are not voting, Mr. Spanberger needs to ensure that 60 percent of them are not Democrats.”
