Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed intentions to restore the Russian Empire. This ambition seems to be a gamble for his political standing. However, many countries that were once part of the Soviet Union and Eastern European satellite states appear resistant to this idea, having embraced their independence.
Countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria have stepped out from under Russian influence by joining the European Union and NATO. While some have pro-Russian political factions, there’s a clear sentiment against reverting to any form of Russian rule.
It’s one thing to import Russian energy, but quite another to compromise their sovereignty. Accepting Moscow’s authority would be a major leap backward.
Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia seem to be navigating a gray area. They occasionally show alignment with Moscow but also strive to assert their independence.
Azerbaijan is in a position to stand firm against Kremlin pressure due to its wealth and relationship with Türkiye. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are balancing ties with both Russia and China. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are quite adept at this balancing act. As for Turkmenistan, being landlocked and neutral might change as tensions with Russia rise over the Caspian Sea’s dwindling resources.
It’s interesting to observe that the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union only comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. In contrast, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is led by China, includes members such as China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan, along with 14 dialogue partners including Armenia and Azerbaijan. Clearly, many Asian nations that were part of the former Soviet Union recognize that their path forward may be with China.
Belarus and Ukraine deserve special mention, too.
Despite Belarus being officially linked to Russia through a “Union State” and receiving orders from Moscow, President Alexander Lukashenko often behaves as though he’s in control. His most notable achievement lately has been to distance his country from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine while publicly professing loyalty to Russia. Nearly four years into the war, Belarus has not actively engaged in it.
Lukashenko has attempted to engage with the U.S. administration, leading to the release of political prisoners in exchange for a lifting of certain sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia.
And then there’s Ukraine, which has moved beyond any uncertainty surrounding its identity, firmly asserting its independence and rejecting Russian influence. The loss of Ukraine represents a significant blow to Putin’s aspirations for the Russian Empire.
But Putin remains determined. His imperial ambitions don’t seem to have faded. Russian political culture contains strong elements that promote expansion and a “civilizing mission.” He’s likely to continue trying to expand Russia’s influence whenever possible.
Yet this attempt at imperialism seems destined to falter. The window for rebuilding an empire was really in the 1990s, when global dynamics were different, and other nations were less organized. Sure, Russia had its own issues then, but it also had considerable resources, including a large military and economic clout, which could have facilitated a resurgence reminiscent of the Bolshevik era.
Now, non-Russian countries have become more resilient and harder to dominate. Despite some stability, Russia might have pursued imperial goals if not for the fallout from the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has weakened its military and driven its economy towards instability.
Thanks to Putin, while the imperial dream might linger, the vision of it is effectively over. With dependence on nations like China and North Korea, Russia is increasingly perceived as a nation capable of destruction but not conquest, a “Burkina Faso with a bomb,” so to speak.
