Democrats ride a blue wave to major election victories

Democrats scored a string of striking wins across states of both parties, including several closely watched governor’s races. A nationwide voter survey of more than 100,000 people points to economic anxiety, views of President Donald Trump and shifting support among key groups as major factors in the results.

South Carolina

Democrat Annie Andrews narrowly defeated Republican Darline Graham, flipping a Senate seat held by Graham’s brother, Lindsey, for more than two decades. Darline Graham was appointed after her brother died in July, but struggled to match his past electoral strength. He won reelection in 2020 by 11 points.

Graham also fell short of Trump’s 2024 support among several groups. Rural voters backed Trump by 63% that year, but gave Graham 51%. Andrews won about 10 points more of the rural vote than Kamala Harris had. Graham retained support from many non-MAGA Republicans, though her 70% share was below Trump’s 79% among that group in 2024.

Andrews dominated among independents, winning roughly seven in 10. Trump had received 39% of their vote in 2024, while Graham won less than one in five. Andrews also performed well with women, college graduates and urban voters.

Democrats largely united behind Andrews, while Graham received the support of only about eight in 10 Republicans. More than one in 10 Republicans crossed party lines to vote for Andrews.

The economy was the state’s leading concern, named the top issue by more than four in 10 voters. Andrews won a majority of those voters. Three-quarters said inflation had caused their families financial hardship in the past year, and more than half were very worried about the cost of gas, groceries, utilities and health care. Six in 10 said Trump’s policies had worsened the economy, and more than half blamed him for inflation.

Voters also questioned whether Graham had the experience needed to serve in the Senate: more than six in 10 said she did not.

Ohio

Democrat Sherrod Brown reclaimed his Senate seat, defeating Republican John Husted, who had been appointed to JD Vance’s seat after Vance became vice president. Brown had led in polling throughout the race.

Husted sought to portray Brown as extreme, but more than half of voters who knew Brown from his three Senate terms did not see him that way. Brown, meanwhile, successfully tied Husted to Trump. Nearly six in 10 voters said Husted was too supportive of the president.

The race tested whether Democrats could win back working-class voters amid worries about prices and the economy. The results suggest they did. Trump won 61% of voters without a college degree in 2024; Husted won only about half of them. Trump had also carried rural voters by 70%, while Husted fell roughly 11 points short of that mark.

The shift among young voters was especially sharp. Trump won 60% of voters under 30 in 2024, but Husted received less than a quarter of their votes. Hispanic voters also moved strongly toward Democrats: after backing Trump over Harris, 58% to 41% in 2024, about three-quarters supported Brown this time.

Economic concerns were widespread. Nearly seven in 10 said the state economy was in poor shape, eight in 10 said inflation had hurt their families, and six in 10 blamed Trump’s policies. His job approval was nearly 20 points underwater, and six in 10 said he put his own interests ahead of the country’s.

Voters most often said they wanted change in a senator. Brown won about half of those voters, compared with roughly four in 10 for Husted.

Ohio’s governor’s race also went to the Democrats. A controversial advertisement from Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign targeting Democrat Amy Acton appeared to have little effect. Among voters who made up their minds in the final week, support was about evenly divided.

Maine

Democrat Troy Jackson, a former logger and president of the Maine Senate, defeated five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Collins had been the only Republican member of Congress from New England; after her loss, the region had none.

The contest stayed close, but Democrats repeatedly linked Collins to Trump, who was unpopular with Maine voters. Six in 10 disapproved of his performance, and about the same share said Collins was too supportive of him.

Control of the Senate was a major concern for eight in 10 voters. Jackson won those voters by more than 10 points. The state of democracy was the top issue, and roughly eight in 10 voters who named it backed Jackson. He also won overwhelming support from voters unhappy with the country’s direction and those who wanted change in their senator.

Jackson did better than Collins among women, younger voters, college graduates, liberals, and urban and suburban voters. Collins’ strongest group was non-MAGA Republicans, a constituency that had long fit her political image, but it was not enough to secure a win.

Iowa

Republican Ashley Hinson lost to Democrat Josh Turek, who flipped the Senate seat held by retiring Republican Joni Ernst. Trump had carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024.

Hinson held on to rural voters, though not at the level Trump had achieved. High fuel prices, tariffs and the war in Iran may have weakened Republican support in rural areas. Six in 10 voters said tariffs were hurting Iowa’s economy; the same share were very concerned about gas prices and believed the Iran war was the wrong decision.

Seven in 10 Iowans said they were angry or dissatisfied with the country’s direction. Trump’s approval was weak, and more than half said Hinson was too supportive of him.

Turek’s strength among young voters, Hispanic voters, college graduates and suburban voters proved difficult for Hinson to overcome. Both young and Hispanic voters had supported Trump in substantial numbers two years earlier.

Kansas

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall lost a seat that had seemed safe, falling to Democrat Adam Hamilton, a popular megachurch pastor. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century. Hamilton’s local profile, combined with economic concerns and Trump’s unpopularity, helped change that.

Gas prices were a major worry, with more than half of voters saying they were very concerned about the cost. The Iran war was also a significant issue: six in 10 said it was the wrong decision, and more than nine in 10 said it factored into their vote. In the heavily agricultural state, six in 10 said tariffs were hurting the economy.

Rural voters had backed Trump by 72% in 2024, but only about six in 10 supported Marshall. Trump campaigned for Marshall three times, yet his approval rating was more than 10 points underwater. Marshall did not distance himself from the president, and that may have cost him. Six in 10 voters blamed Trump’s policies for inflation and worsening economic conditions.

Nearly six in 10 said Trump was focused on the wrong priorities. Those voters backed Hamilton by almost 10 to one. Marshall also struggled with young voters: while Trump won 58% of them in 2024, more than eight in 10 supported Hamilton.

Michigan

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, keeping Michigan’s Senate seat in Democratic hands. El-Sayed will become the Senate’s first Muslim member.

During the campaign, El-Sayed faced allegations about family links to extremist groups and criticism that he was too far left. Voters generally did not consider him too extreme. Rogers, by contrast, struggled with his ties to Trump: more than six in 10 said he was too closely aligned with the president.

Six in 10 Michigan voters disapproved of Trump’s performance. Seven in 10 said the economy was in poor shape, eight in 10 said inflation had caused hardship, and four in 10 said their family finances had worsened over the past year. These voters favored El-Sayed.

More than half said U.S. support for Israel was too strong, making the issue part of the campaign. There had been concern about whether Black voters would support El-Sayed, but nearly nine in 10 did, about the same share that backed Harris in 2024.

Young voters also shifted away from Republicans. Half had voted for Trump in 2024, but fewer than a third supported Rogers this time. Rogers held his own among rural voters and those without college degrees, but El-Sayed’s support among women, graduates and urban and suburban voters carried him to victory.

Minnesota

Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor, held retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat, defeating former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya in a race that was unexpectedly competitive for a reliably Democratic state.

Tafoya attacked Flanagan over corruption and linked her to major fraud scandals in Minnesota. Corruption was a serious concern for six in 10 voters, and those voters favored Tafoya by more than two to one. Still, Flanagan won most other groups.

Democracy was the top issue in Minnesota, and Flanagan carried voters who named it by four to one. The economy ranked second, and dissatisfaction was widespread: seven in 10 rated it as mediocre or poor, eight in 10 said inflation had created hardship, six in 10 blamed Trump’s policies for inflation, and about two-thirds said his policies had made the economy worse.

Flanagan repeatedly connected Tafoya to the unpopular president, and that strategy appeared to help. More than half of voters also thought Tafoya lacked sufficient experience. Flanagan’s progressive views did not seem to concern most voters; more than half said she was not too extreme.

Texas

Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, flipping a Senate seat in a state Trump had won by 14 points in 2024. Talarico became the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide race in Texas.

Hispanic voters, half of whom had backed Trump in 2024, supported Talarico by about two-thirds. Young voters swung even more sharply: eight in 10 voted for Talarico, after more than half had supported Trump two years earlier.

Trump won 73% of rural voters in 2024. Talarico did not win that group, but Paxton received only about six in 10 of their votes. Paxton also retained support from three-quarters of non-MAGA Republicans, close to the share who had voted for Trump in 2024.

Paxton entered the race with a controversial record, having won a divisive primary against longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn and faced legal and personal scandals. Six in 10 voters viewed him unfavorably, compared with four in 10 for Talarico.

Black voters were especially important to Talarico after his difficult primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who did not endorse him. Nine in 10 Black voters supported him, even as Trump had won 20% of the Black vote in 2024.

Texas voters were broadly unhappy with the country’s direction, with seven in 10 saying they were angry or dissatisfied. The Iran war also mattered: nine in 10 said it influenced their vote, six in 10 considered it the wrong decision, and another six in 10 were very concerned about gas prices.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican Greg Abbott, who had sought a historic fourth term. Hinojosa will be the state’s first Hispanic governor and its first Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990. More than half of Texas voters viewed Abbott unfavorably, compared with about four in 10 for Hinojosa.

Alaska

Alaska’s Senate race remained too close to call at the end of election night. The contest included Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, Democrat Mary Peltola and an independent candidate also named Dan Sullivan.

In the final week, attention turned to a report alleging that Alaska Democrats had deliberately put a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot to damage the incumbent’s chances. Peltola denied the allegation, while lawsuits and accusations continued as voters went to the polls.

Affordability remained a concern, with about half of voters very worried about the cost of gas, health care, food and utilities. But democracy, rather than the economy, was the leading issue, and voters who named it strongly favored Peltola.

Trump had carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but more voters now disapproved of his performance than approved of it. More than half said Sullivan was too close to the president. Still, nearly one in five voters who thought Sullivan was too supportive of Trump continued to back him.

About the survey

The voter survey was conducted with registered voters nationwide from Oct. 19 through Nov. 3, 2026, ending when polls closed on Election Day. It included more than 900 interviews in South Carolina, 1,000 in Kansas, 2,900 in Alaska, 4,000 in Maine, 3,900 in Minnesota, 4,300 in Ohio, 4,400 in Iowa, 4,700 in Michigan and 5,200 in Texas.