Ironically, the only major political issue on which a majority of Americans seem to agree is the one that seems inevitable: the relationship between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. It means that he has little interest in the presidential election.
Also, a recent Reuters/Ipsos report found that two-thirds (67%) of Americans are generally “tired of seeing the same candidate in the presidential election and want a new candidate.” Although it is stated, pollthe issue is deeper than that and speaks to the significant obstacles each candidate faces.
In fact, a majority of Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat dissatisfied” with both Trump (58%) and Biden (56%) as candidates, according to the AP-NORC Research Center. There is vote.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the same poll shows how unpopular both candidates are, with 6 in 10 (60 percent) Americans viewing President Trump unfavorably. and a similar 54% have an unfavorable view of President Biden.
As the November election approaches, these sentiments have dramatically shifted in favor of either Biden or Trump, especially as non-political developments continue to reveal flaws in each candidate. Very unlikely to change.
To this end, Special Counsel Robert Hur raised scathing and questionable questions. explanation The assessment of President Biden as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” whose lapses “seem to be consistent with declining capacity and memory deficiencies” is a clear blow to the incumbent president. It was something that broke me down.
Moreover, for the Biden campaign, it couldn’t have come at a worse time, just days into the Biden presidency. I made a mistake The two living heads of state, French President Emmanuel Macron and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and their predecessors Francois Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl, respectively, have died.
Biden’s propensity for this kind of gaffe is nothing new, but even before Huh’s report, roughly three-quarters (76 percent) of registered voters, 81 percent of independents, and even 54 percent of Democrats ) have serious or ‘moderate’ concerns that Biden does not have the necessary mental or physical health to serve a second term, according to NBC News. vote.
Mr. Xu’s report, and major concerns about his age and memory, will likely force Mr. Biden to push back in ways that are not certain to succeed. Case in point: At Thursday’s press conference, Biden tried to calm Democratic fears with a fiery performance, but perhaps this time he exacerbated them by angrily lecturing the press and upsetting world leaders once again. Will. Mention In response to a question about the Middle East, he referred to the Egyptian president as “the president of Mexico.”
Even before Herr’s bombshell, Biden told Democrats that “Trump and his MAGA friends” were “losers” and criticized Hillary Clinton ahead of the 2016 election. ‘s “deplorable” comments seemed to forget that Democrats were bothering her by promoting the narrative that they openly disparage those who disagree with them. their worldview.
Unfortunately for Democrats, there doesn’t seem to be any good choice other than Biden. It’s clear that the party establishment doesn’t trust Vice President Kamala Harris to run, otherwise they would have elevated her months ago and given her a chance to run a proper campaign.
Moreover, with a popular figure outside the administration like Michelle Obama highly unlikely to step into the ring, Democrats appear to have no choice but to continue supporting the president in the hopes that voters won’t overlook his obstacles. . It’s only because he hates Donald Trump so much.
Speaking of former presidents, it’s important to remember in any conversation about Biden’s shortcomings that while Trump is certainly more energetic and proactive than Biden, he also has his own problems.
Trump is not just a face 91 felonies and civil case It threatens to upend his business empire, but multiple states have launched their own campaigns to stop him. ballot paper Thanks to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
And although it is very likely that the Supreme Court will rule, refuse Trump’s legal and ethical baggage is a political headache in these states, and is bound to keep him in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Similarly, polls have found that a conviction could be decisive in any of the four criminal trials Trump faces.A majority of voters in battleground states (53%) say they would not vote for him if he is convicted, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult. vote.
A conviction would hurt independents, as one-fifth of voters in battleground states who supported Trump in 2020 are “somewhat” or “very” likely to vote for Trump again after a conviction. not only.
Importantly, none of the cases appear to be on track to be decided before the election, but if voters clearly take the issue seriously and it appears that a conviction may even be possible. This means that enough voters may reject the former president.
Making matters worse, both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are unable to effectively communicate with voters outside of their most loyal bases. Biden suffers from mental and physical disabilities and often has trouble articulating his points clearly and concisely.
And President Trump has a penchant for using divisive and inflammatory rhetoric such as:prohibitMAGA Nikki Haley Supporter turn away moderates and women.
At the end of the day, both candidates have vulnerabilities that would be politically fatal to virtually any other candidate, but like many others, I think Trump is the more controversial candidate. Despite being a divisive candidate, I suspect he is the biggest winner here.
Biden’s struggle with perceptions of his mental and physical decline, however accurate, is likely to be more harmful than President Trump’s flaws, which Americans are already deeply aware of.
Put another way, this November, Americans will be forced to go to the polls and decide between two essentially unelectable candidates, neither of whom represents a majority of the country. It will be. wish Although for different reasons, neither can be elected by other opponents.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China are rising, and America is retreating. ” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Shane Cooperman Research.
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