Lakers fans are holding onto a flicker of hope as the Western Conference semifinal series shifts to Southern California this weekend.
While there’s no mass panic just yet, the urgency is definitely escalating: the Lakers’ season is heading towards a critical point.
Currently sitting at a 2-0 deficit against the reigning champion Thunder, the Lakers not only need to win, but they’ve got history and expectations weighing down on them, not to mention a possible tangle with the officials.
Speaking of history, teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series tend to win about 93.7% of the time. The numbers remain roughly the same in the conference semifinals, with 111 victories against just 8 losses for those leading 2-0 in the second round.
Lakers supporters are steadfast in their belief, but the real question is: can this team actually turn things around and send the series back to Oklahoma City?
Let’s dig a bit deeper.
The Lakers have done a solid job defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s the reigning MVP. He’s not exactly finding comfort on the court—LA has been pressuring him right as he crosses half court. He managed just 18 points in the first game, and in the second, he totaled 13 points through the third quarter.
Still, the Thunder came out on top both times.
And that’s where the issues lie.
While the Lakers have been focused on neutralizing Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have unleashed other players. Chet Holmgren, for example, has racked up 46 points and 21 rebounds, while Ajay Mitchell has contributed 38. The Thunder’s depth has proven to be a significant challenge, and they know how to exploit every opportunity. When the Lakers shut down one player, three more step up.
This leads us to the first crucial thing the Lakers need to achieve to win Games 3 and 4 at home: they must capitalize when SGA is off the floor.
Those few minutes are crucial. In the two games, when SGA wasn’t playing, the Lakers found themselves at a disadvantage with a minus-26. If he doesn’t get any downtime in this series, it’ll be difficult for them.
But in order to actually win during those stretches, the Lakers have to find a way to perform even when their key players are resting. LeBron James, at 41, is still a powerful presence, but the moment he exits the game, the Lakers seem to struggle. He’s currently at a minus-18 when he’s on the bench during this series.
To avoid falling apart during those minutes, Austin Reeves will have to step up as the lead scorer. In Game 1, he couldn’t find his rhythm, shooting just 3-for-16, but he bounced back in Game 2 with a playoff-best 31 points. His scoring helped the Lakers secure their first win without LeBron in the second quarter, but they need that energy throughout the game.
With both LeBron resting, the Lakers simply won’t match the Thunder’s offensive firepower.
Then, we’ve got turnovers and extra possessions to consider.
The Thunder thrive off live-ball turnovers and transition plays. The Lakers have been guilty of committing 37 turnovers over these two games, often due to sloppy passing and questionable decisions. OKC capitalized on these mistakes, gaining a considerable edge in second-chance points.
If the Lakers can tighten up their ball control, they might just be able to turn things around.
And there’s one other huge factor that’s persisted for the Lakers this postseason: the three-point line. It really is that straightforward—a team usually wins if it outscores the other in playoff games. If the Lakers can shoot above 40% from three and keep the Thunder under their averages, they stand a chance.
However, even if the Lakers were to address all these areas, their prospects still don’t seem bright in this series.
The Thunder, quite frankly, have the upper hand. They’re younger, deeper, and boast superior athleticism. Their defense not only challenges every shot the Lakers take but also makes them feel uneasy. It feels almost unfair, especially given the challenges the Lakers are facing, but that’s the price of success in basketball.
In reality, without Doncic, the Lakers are facing an uphill battle—climbing a steep cliff without any safety nets. They need to play extraordinarily well while hoping the calls from officials go in their favor. On a positive note, they’re back at home, where they will need two solid nights of basketball. Every loose ball needs to bounce their way, every player has to hit their shots, and rotations must be precise.
Maybe, just maybe, they can conjure up a miracle.
Do the Lakers have a shot? Yes, but it’s roughly around 6%.
