Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, predictions, value picks for next PGA Tour event

For the first time in his PGA Tour career, Windham Clark will arrive at the golf course as the defending champion.

He made his breakthrough a year ago at the Wells Fargo Championship by defeating Xander Schauffele by four strokes at Quail Hollow Club. The following month, Clark won the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.

His most recent win came at Pebble Beach in February.

Some would argue that if it weren’t for Scottie Scheffler’s remarkable performances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, the Masters, and RBC Heritage, Clark has been playing the most impressive golf of the past 12 months. right.

But fortunately for Clark, and the rest of this limited field, Scheffler will not be competing this week. He and his wife Meredith are looking forward to the birth of their first child.

With the world No. 1 player unavailable, Wells Fargo’s odds were adjusted accordingly.

Wells Fargo Championship Odds:

The current situation is as follows odds Brought to you by DraftKings to help players win:

• Rory McIlroy +800
• Xander Schauffele +1100
• Ludwig Oberg +1200
• Wyndham Clark +1800
• Viktor Hovland +2200
• Tommy Fleetwood +2200
• Patrick Cantlay +2200
• Max Homa +2200
• Colin Morikawa +2200
• Saheth Segala +2800
• Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2800
• Justin Thomas +3000
• Jordan Spieth +3000

Wells Fargo championship predictions

With no Scheffler, is this a very open tournament?

perhaps. Either way, this event is the perfect tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship. Quail Hollow Club, the site of this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, is one of the most difficult courses the tour visits each year, requiring precision from tee to green.

Interestingly, the club will once again host the PGA Championship in 2025, eight years after Justin Thomas won his first PGA title at Quail Hollow in 2017.

Nevertheless, big hitters who can find plenty of greens tend to do well here. Accuracy is also essential.

Rory McIlroy’s personal playground

Rory McIlroy, the only player to win this tournament three times, loves competing at Quail Hollow.

His most recent win here was in 2021, when he edged Abraham Ansah by a shot thanks to a final-round 3-under 68. McIlroy relied on his putter to rank third in strokes gained putting that week.

The Northern Irishman also won here in 2010 and 2015, the former being the first PGA Tour win of his career. McIlroy won with a 9-under 62 in the final round, a course record that stood until 2015 when he broke it with a 10-under 61 in the third round. McIlroy won that week by seven points.

Photo credit: Eston Parker/Getty Images

McIlroy has emerged as the favorite to win this year, and that’s no surprise. Fresh off his 25th PGA Tour victory at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans, McIlroy is in good shape heading into the major championship season.

The odds also reflect that. The high price of a top-10 finish for McIlroy is that he doesn’t return value at -110, so he’d like to see a top-five finish at +190.

Canadian mission continues to succeed

Canada’s Taylor Pendrith ended his first PGA Tour career win in dramatic fashion last week thanks to a heartbreaking bogey on the 72nd hole by Ben Coles.

So Pendrith qualified for this week’s field and next week’s PGA Championship, a big step in his budding career.

But Pendrith isn’t the only Canadian playing well lately. Nick Taylor won the WM Phoenix Open in February, Corey Connors hasn’t missed the cut this season and Mackenzie Hughes is trending in the right direction.

Still, among that group, we’re hoping Connors plays well again at Quail Hollow.

Photo by Mike Ehrman/Getty Images

Last year, Connors tied for eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship, posting under-par rounds all four days. He had a 76.4% chance of hitting the green in regulation, which ranked him fourth among the field. Not surprising considering his exquisite ball-striking ability.

Connors ranks fourth on tour this season in green approach strokes gained and third in greens allowed. He also finds a lot of fairways, his percentage being 68.73%, which is well above the tour average.

With this in mind, we want Connors to perform better than he did a season ago and finish inside the top five at +1100 at Quail Hollow.

Alex Nolen will aim for another top-10 finish without attracting attention

Arguably the most underrated player on the PGA Tour this season, 41-year-old Swede Alex Nolen has played in 10 tournaments and finished inside the top 25 seven times.

His best result was last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he shot a final round of 6-under 65 to take sole third place.

Photo credit: Aric Becker/Getty Images

The statistics reflect his strong play this season. Nolen ranks sixth in total strokes gained and second in regulation percentage on greens, behind only Scheffler. He also leads in scramble percentage, with a par save percentage of nearly 75% when he misses the green.

The only drawback for Nolen is that he ranks 145th on the PGA Tour in total driving distance, which may be difficult at Quail Hollow’s nearly 7,600-yard course.

Still, there’s just too much going on with Noren that it’s hard not to consider. At a price of +800, we want him to score his third top 10 of the season.

Wells Fargo Championship Longshot Picks

Before the 2024 Masters Tournament, Sepp Straka, who became the first Austrian-born player to represent Europe at the 2023 Ryder Cup, was unable to find consistency in his game.

He was all over the place with four missed cuts and two top-20 finishes at The Sentry and The Players.

But something clicked at Augusta National. He tied for 16th that week and tied for 5th at RBC Heritage, his best finish of the season.

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Straka then competed with Bryce Garnett at the Zurich Classic, finishing tied for 11th.

After a week off, the former Georgia Bulldog arrives at Quail Hollow fresh and ready to compete once again at a major championship venue. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage, hitting the fairway nearly 80% of the time.

Additionally, he has achieved a green hitting rate of 68.82% this season, which ranks 36th on tour.

Despite missing out here a year ago, we believe Straka’s accuracy and above-average ball striking could lead him to his first PGA Tour victory this season. At +6000, the Austrian is worth taking a chance on.

Wells Fargo Championship Winner

Of all the players without a win on the PGA Tour in 2024, no player has played better than Xander Schauffele, who ranks third in total strokes gained this season.

Schauffele believes his win at Quail Hollow this week will change the narrative of his close race. He ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee and 27th in strokes gained on approach to the green, both solid attributes for success on this demanding golf course. .

Getty Images

He played well on this course as well. Schauffele shot a 7-under 64 in the third round at Quail Hollow a year ago to finish alone in second place. He also tied for 14th in 2021.

The question is whether he can make some putts because he’s always in the best position. He tied for second at The Players and finished eighth alone at the Masters, but had he dropped a few more putts, that solid performance could have given him a memorable victory.

Unfortunately, I believe Schauffele will do just that this week. He arrives with his second-lowest odds of +1000 behind McIlroy and will be riding into Kentucky full of confidence heading into the PGA Championship.

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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through.Be sure to check it out @_PlayingThrough Cover more golf. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko In the same way.