There’s a lot of optimism surrounding the 2027 quarterback class. After the 2026 lineup, which saw two first-round picks in Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, and a strong 2025 group featuring first-round talents like Cam Ward and Jackson Dart, the NFL is hopeful this year’s signal callers will reflect the success of the 2024 class. That class had three quarterbacks chosen in the first three picks, six in the top twelve, and four NFL starters: Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May, and Bo Nix. Even those who didn’t make the immediate impact, like Michael Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy, still have potential.
At first glance, the 2027 class is loaded with talent and skill. Key players like Arch Manning from Texas, Dante Moore from Oregon, Julian Sane from Ohio State, Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss, and several others, including CJ Carr and Drew Mestemaker, appear ready to compete. Who knows? There might even be some surprise players emerging as dark horses with NFL potential.
This gives NFL teams at least eight viable quarterbacks to evaluate. However, it’s important to remember that not every highly-touted prospect turns out to be what they’re cracked up to be. History shows us that excitement can sometimes lead to unexpected downturns.
The goal of this series is to analyze each rising star, considering both their achievements and the steps needed to reach their highest potential. Let’s kick things off with Arch Manning, who, despite facing challenges, showed significant improvement in his first year as an NCAA starter.
Manning had a rocky beginning with only 103 dropbacks in his first two seasons. Starting 2025 was tough, too—up until Week 7, he completed 62.6% of his passes for 1,317 yards with a decent average. There was talk about possibly benching him early on for his own benefit, but coach Steve Sarkisian ultimately decided against it.
“I don’t think any college player has faced what he has before really starting,” Sarkisian commented. “A lot had to do with his last name and our brand creating a storyline. But Arch focused on what he needed to do without letting that affect him.”
From Week 8 to Texas’ Citrus Bowl victory over Michigan, Manning’s stats improved as he completed 59.6% of his passes for over 1,800 yards, alongside a growing number of touchdowns with fewer interceptions. These games included tough opponents, and he had to navigate through those challenges without the earlier suspensions that affected earlier matchups.
By the end of his first full season as a starter, Manning looked more like the player people expected, with queries about his position fading away. He still had some struggles, particularly after an underwhelming performance against Kentucky State, which drew some criticism.
As we analyze Manning’s journey, what are his strengths now, and where does he need to elevate his game for 2026? Well, let’s start with his ability to move within the pocket.
Arch Manning’s Pocket Movement
Even during some of his toughest moments last season, Manning’s pocket movement stood out as a significant asset. This skill has drawn comparisons to Joe Burrow; after all, he’s currently considered the best at navigating the pocket. If Manning continues this trajectory, those comparisons might hold true. His ability to create space and manage the pocket is very promising.
In fact, Manning completed 45 of 97 passes under pressure last season, showing a marked improvement as the games went on. He became more composed and trusted his ability to maneuver despite being challenged. That trust has clearly paid off.
Win Outside the Pocket
Unlike his famous uncles, Manning’s athleticism outside the pocket is noteworthy. Rather than just using his legs as a last resort, he showed skill in making plays once things got tight. When throwing outside the pocket in 2025, he logged strong stats, and after Week 8, those stats only got better against tougher defenses.
Arch Manning Under Pressure
As the 2025 season progressed, Manning’s handling of pressure improved significantly. He grew less erratic in his play, making smarter decisions against formidable opponents. This trend bodes well for his future.
Make Progress
Throughout the latter half of the season, Manning became a larger part of the offensive strategy. In the first seven weeks, his effectiveness in reading plays was less robust, but he demonstrated growth that was encouraging. The ability to refine those skills and capitalize on opportunities will be crucial moving forward.
Arch Manning Can Win as a Runner
This aspect of his game is something we haven’t really seen from him before. Compared to his grandfather and uncles, who mostly ran out of necessity, Manning has the potential to be a real threat with designed runs—though he’s not quite in the same league as some of his peers. Last season, he recorded over 500 rushing yards and, interestingly, his big plays came from both planned runs and scrambles. But is he relying too much on scrambling at this stage? Perhaps, but it’s undeniably an asset.
That said, Manning does need to sharpen his throwing mechanics. At times, he can be inconsistent, which leads to unnecessary failures. Though he’s effective as a scrambler, it’s essential for him to read plays from a clean pocket as well. That shift might be more challenging in the NFL compared to college.
So, is Arch Manning ready for the league just yet? Not quite. Staying in Austin for another season makes perfect sense for him. If he builds on his progress from 2025, he could easily become a top draft pick in 2027.
But what if things don’t turn out that way? The competition for the top spot in the 2027 QB class could become quite intense.
