President Trump’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has persisted for over three years.
During his second term, Trump prioritized addressing the war. However, Putin has proven to be a formidable opponent, showing little willingness to make any peace concessions while intensifying military actions against Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not part of the discussions at the Alaska Summit, yet he, alongside European leaders, has been actively urging Trump to adopt a firmer stance in negotiations this week.
The White House has tempered expectations, clarifying that while a major breakthrough is unlikely, Trump has laid the groundwork for a potential follow-up meeting that would involve Zelensky.
The international community is keenly observing whether signs of a viable peace agreement will emerge.
When it comes to priorities, the perspectives of Ukraine, the US, and Russia are notable:
Zelensky
From the sidelines, Zelensky stands to lose the most in the dynamic between Trump and Putin.
Trump has been inconsistent, at times expressing frustration with Ukrainian leaders and temporarily halting military support and intelligence sharing, despite recognizing the loss of life and suffering.
Zelensky may hope for a lukewarm outcome from the Alaska Summit, as noted by Olga Tokariuk, a fellow at the Democrat Resilience Program at the European Centre for Policy Analysis.
“Ideally for Ukraine, no agreement between Russia and the US would be the best outcome,” Tokariuk stated.
Furthermore, she suggested that if Trump were to impose additional sanctions on Russia, it would represent a significant win for Kyiv, especially with Putin’s escalating threats surrounding peace negotiations.
Zelensky and European leaders are set to hold a virtual discussion with Trump Thursday, reinforcing that any negotiations must include Ukraine. They will stress the importance of a current, frontline ceasefire, security guarantees for Ukraine, and reaffirming Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Furthermore, there should be no recognition of Russian-occupied territories, which account for about 20% of Ukraine.
However, Trump has deviated from these positions, and although Putin remarked there’s little chance of agreeing to a ceasefire, he still aims to engage in broader peace talks.
John Herbst, a senior director at the Atlantic Council and former ambassador to Ukraine, remarked that Trump’s view of a lasting peace might include a “de facto” Russian occupation—which could be problematic for Ukraine.
He added, “To facilitate any movement, major concessions from Moscow would be necessary.” Yet, Putin appears reluctant to soften his rigid demands concerning territorial adjustments in Ukraine.
Trump
Trump himself acknowledged early this week that a significant breakthrough in peace talks seems unlikely.
His ambition for the summit is to transition from an initial meeting with Putin to a subsequent one likely involving Zelensky.
“This meeting will pave the way for another, but I’d say there’s only a 25% chance of success,” Trump mentioned during an interview on Fox News.
He’s keen on establishing himself as a peacemaker, and securing a strong deal for Ukraine would undoubtedly bolster his qualifications for a potential Nobel Peace Prize.
That said, Trump is also eager to find a way to reduce US involvement in the conflict, having already shifted to ending financial backing for Ukraine.
The cessation of support from the US International Development Agency marks a significant change, affecting humanitarian and economic aid to Kyiv, though Trump continues to provide military assistance from already allocated resources.
His focus seems to now be on having allies fund US arms for Ukraine, raising questions about whether he will commit to providing approximately $800 million to Ukraine in the coming year.
This week, the White House shared on platform X that “the world’s President Trump aims for the Nobel Peace Prize,” featuring an image of him at a podium with the NATO emblem.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly clarified that promoting sales of American weapons to NATO allies is part of his efforts to mitigate the violence between Russia and Ukraine.
During the summit, Trump warned that if Putin fails to cease hostilities, he would impose heavy consequences on Russia. However, he later indicated that his focus would shift back to domestic issues if the talks fall short.
Earlier, Trump emphasized that one of the summit’s goals was to gauge Putin’s seriousness regarding ending the conflict.
Simultaneously, there is a pronounced emphasis on the economic prospects of revamped US-Russia relations, suggesting that business deals might serve to discourage Putin’s aggression.
“There could be significant opportunities for Russia,” Trump noted.
Advisors have cautioned against such incentives, asserting that while Trump may think like a businessman, Putin won’t yield easily.
Putin
Pundits contend that Putin has already scored a substantial victory by simply meeting with the US president on American soil without making any commitments.
He managed to stall Trump’s threats of “secondary tariffs” that had been anticipated since August. Despite this impasse, Trump admitted he hasn’t levied any additional sanctions against Russia in the last six months.
The Kremlin continues to eye opportunities for new US-Russia business relations.
“More collaboration could be immensely beneficial, but it appears to be underutilized,” noted Yury Ushakov, one of Putin’s aides.
Experts argue that Putin’s underlying goal remains unchanged: to assert dominance in Ukraine while framing the conflict as part of a larger struggle against what he perceives as threats from the West, particularly NATO.
“Establishing enduring conditions for peace, both domestically and across Europe, is paramount,” Putin declared.
Daniel Fried, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US ambassador to Poland, warned that Putin excels at creating superficial, hollow concessions to distract from pressing issues.
“I’ve seen him do it,” Fried shared. “He uses these tactics to draw attention away from the real dilemmas,” suggesting that it’s essential to remain vigilant against such maneuvers.
Yet Fried reiterated that the US holds substantial leverage through the threat of sanctions and has ramped up military support for Ukraine, alleviating the financial burden on American taxpayers.
“If Trump pushes hard, Putin may need to reconsider his strategies,” Fried asserted.
“President Putin understands the stakes. A ceasefire and security for Ukraine don’t equate to granting him his full demands, which is control over everything. But ultimately, what Putin wants shouldn’t dictate the terms.”
