Mark Penn, chairman of the Harris Poll and former senior adviser to Clinton, explains concerns Democrats have about Biden’s fitness to be president and who would likely succeed him.
Biden has maintained he will be the Democratic nominee in 2024 despite growing calls for him to withdraw, and betting markets have been on a rollercoaster ride up and down the odds since the 81-year-old Biden’s disastrous debate defeat against former President Trump two weeks ago.
Ahead of the June 27 debate, traders at Polymarket, the world’s largest predictions market with roughly 80% of the global market share, were betting that there was about a one in four chance that Biden would pull out. The next day, that probability jumped to 43%, then soared to 75% on July 3, as the news cycle indicated growing pressure to hand the baton to Biden.
President Biden waves from Air Force One as he prepares to depart from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on July 7, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
But that chance has steadily declined since then as Biden has repeatedly said he won’t resign. PolyMarket traders put the chances of Biden stepping down at 45% as of Monday afternoon, after he sent a letter to Democratic lawmakers earlier in the day saying he was “firmly committed to remaining in the race.”
Similar changes were observed at other sites.
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“The market is currently seeing President Biden in the lead as the Democratic nominee, with the index up 14 cents today alone,” Lindsay Singer, director of communications for PredictIt, told Fox Business in a statement Monday, “However, these figures come after several days of significant movement and price fluctuations, as well as the addition of several new potential candidates.”
President Biden and Vice President Harris stand on the Truman Balcony at the White House on July 4, 2024. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
As of the 1st of this week, traders at PredictIt have projected a 54% chance that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. Vice President Harris is in second place with a 31% chance, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom 9%. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and former first lady Michelle Obama are both seen with a 6% chance of winning.
Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS.com, said betting on whether Biden would remain in the race was one of the most popular betting options among political fans on the platform, and that as of Monday the odds were not in Biden’s favor.
“The vast majority of the money is actually on the ‘yes’ option,” Williams told Fox Business. “That’s about 80 percent of the money so far.”
President Biden and former President Trump debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Williams also confirmed that BetUS’ election betting markets have seen “significant fluctuations in recent days,” with Biden’s current moneyline odds of +250 giving him just a 28.57% chance of winning a second term, while Trump’s odds of -200 give him an estimated 66.67% chance of winning.
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Williams added that Harris’ odds have shrunk significantly to +500, or an implied probability of 16.67%.
As of Monday, ElectionOdds.com, which includes odds from Polymarket, PredictIt, Betfair and Smarkets, gave Trump a 58.9% chance of winning this fall’s election, compared with 18.5% for Biden and 11.4% for Harris.
