Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Support Level at $62,000 is Tested
Bitcoin is currently experiencing challenges as its price hovers around $62,000, a crucial support level. This situation represents a notable extension of the ongoing correction from the peak prices, testing the underlying foundations that some bullish investors have pointed to during this decline. It’s clear that selling pressure is ongoing and, I believe, quite significant. Recently, XWIN Research Japan released an analysis that examines the various macro narratives at play, trying to pinpoint what the on-chain data reveals about the real contributors to this correction.
Market explanations are varied; they include geopolitical issues, Federal Reserve policies, and recent minor Bitcoin sales by Strategy. However, XWIN Research Japan’s CryptoQuant analysis offers a more fundamental view—essentially, it suggests that buyers seem to have vanished.
The key factor behind Bitcoin’s rise expected in 2024-2025 isn’t leverage or retail hype. Rather, it was the sustained inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, a structured demand source that helped absorb supply effectively, allowing prices to gradually climb. In 2026, the dynamic shifted. ETF outflows began to rise, and the Coinbase premium lingered in negative territory for a considerable stretch. This indicates that U.S. institutional demand—the most important and reliable buyer group—has pulled back from aggressive acquisition.
Recent data indicates Bitcoin’s realization cap is likely to drop from $1.12 trillion to approximately $1.08 trillion, which suggests nearly $40 billion could exit the network. If this decline in invested capital occurs, it doesn’t so much reflect a change in sentiment but signals a full withdrawal of demand.
XWIN Research Japan’s findings trace where this capital went after leaving Bitcoin. It seems many financial institutions have opted for U.S. stocks, especially those focusing on AI and showing strong earnings growth, which are winning over interest in Bitcoin amid the prevailing interest rate environment. Essentially, the capital hasn’t disappeared; it has switched to assets with potential profit growth and short-term triggers that Bitcoin’s current market structure can’t quite match.
The futures market has likely intensified the decline in Bitcoin’s price without initiating it. Open interest has plummeted, funding rates have normalized, and more than $150 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated recently. These liquidations stemmed from a decrease in demand rather than creating demand, given that derivatives were unwound into a market that already lacked the necessary spot buying to manage the forced selling.
The most comforting insight from this analysis is the comparison to 2022. Long-term holders seem to remain stable, and foreign exchange balances are at historic lows. This correction doesn’t resemble the oversupply based on panic that previously led to a substantial decline. The current issue is not about being oversold—it feels more like there’s simply not enough buying.
For recovery, several specific conditions need to be met: ETF flows returning to positive, a rebound in the Coinbase premium, growth in the realization cap, and a slowing of capital concentration in AI stocks. All these signs suggest that demand might be re-emerging rather than drifting further away. The adjustments seen in June were driven by demand, and the next big trend for Bitcoin will likely hinge on those very forces.
Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure Near Critical Support
Bitcoin is still facing significant pressure after a steep selloff wiped out the gains from April and May, pushing the price back into a critical support zone that mirrors the lows of February. As of now, BTC trades around $62,500 after nearly dropping to $61,000, placing it squarely within this crucial demand area for the year.
The technical structure has notably weakened. Bitcoin has lost the support zone between $72,000 and $74,000 that served as a pivotal point from April to May. This region has now shifted to a resistance zone and will be the first major hurdle if any relief rallies materialize. Importantly, this breakdown coincided with an uptick in trading volumes, indicating that aggressive selling drove the move rather than just a temporary liquidity drought.
The market is currently probing the February bottom range of $61,000 to $64,000. Contrary to past pullbacks, this support has been under threat after a series of lower highs and lows, confirming a bearish trend on the daily chart. BTC is also trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which further enhances the sellers’ advantage.
Nonetheless, this area carries historical significance. The February drop marked the beginning of what turned into several months of recovery. If buyers hold onto this zone, there’s a possibility for Bitcoin to stabilize and regain momentum. If the support breaks decisively, the next target on the downside could be the psychological $60,000 mark, followed by the low $50,000 range.
