IIt is hard not to equate the untimely death of Alexei Navalny with the deaths of Russian opposition figures. Navalny’s death foreshadows a bleak post-election future for Russia, Ukraine and the world, just weeks before a sham election that will secure Vladimir Putin’s fifth term as Russian president.
Inside Russia, Mr. Navalny will be irreplaceable for his ability to connect, charm and mobilize.along with most of his allies now in exile, and with the Kremlin’s ever tighter grip on the digital public square, the very path Navalny used to reach the hearts and minds of young people is rapidly disappearing. It is impossible to predict where a successor will emerge. As a result, the Russian opposition has no leader, no central point of unity, no face to represent it, and no voice to speak for it.
This dark event is not just a tragedy for Russia. This is a chilling signal for defenders of liberal democracy around the world. It is often said that hope shines brightest in the darkest of times, suggesting that a turnaround is just around the corner. However, given the current situation in Russia, such optimism seems misplaced. The country is not prepared for widespread protests. And, paradoxically, the Ukraine war may have inadvertently strengthened certain sectors of Russia’s economy, revitalized arms production, and generated military power. employment opportunities For unskilled workers.
And while the public rejoices at these newfound economic opportunities, Mr. Navalny’s death sends a loud signal to future dissidents and intellectual elites that dissent is no longer an option in Putin’s Russia. will send a clear message. Today’s Russia is a country that cannot even do that. offer flowers in memory without threat of arrest.
At first glance, it appears that President Putin has won a total victory.with Mr. Navalny clever gimmick This policy, aimed at disrupting President Putin’s political behavior, became the final source of uncertainty for his much-anticipated election victory. Domestically, President Putin’s momentum seems unstoppable. He reigns supreme. He is acting with impunity. His words are sacred. He never faces the consequences of his actions.
However, this story doesn’t make complete sense. Putin’s electoral victory over his deceased opponent does little to paint him as a man of formidable strength. So the question arises: Why target Mr. Navalny now? Mr. Navalny has been known for more than a decade, and Mr. Putin has effectively neutralized previous challenges to Mr. Navalny with more conventional tactics, such as disqualifying him from running in the 2018 presidential election. I’ve been doing it. With Mr. Navalny locked up in an Arctic prison, his ability to pose a threat appeared to be further diminished.
There’s only one explanation, and it’s harsh. political science research For dictators, the era of great power proves to be the best time to protect themselves from future political challenges. When challenges arise, it may be too late to consolidate power. President Putin is now in a strong position and knows that now is the time to break the ground for future big moves. He is cleaning the deck. He knows he is no spring chicken, and he may want to commit to what he really wants, which is ultimately to occupy Ukraine.
He is growing impatient as Western support wanes and more favorable political forces seize power in Europe and the United States. He needs to free himself up to declare general mobilization and further expand military production, even at the risk of shrinking the economy and reigniting domestic dissent. In doing so, it does not want a charismatic leader like Navalny to weaken his domestic political support, even in a limited way.
Bold moves such as eliminating a major political opponent may not make sense if Putin simply wants to carry on with business as usual after an election whose outcome is already guaranteed. He makes more sense if Putin is preparing to take a new, more politically difficult course. In that case, he wouldn’t want to leave anything to chance. Whatever he had planned, with Mr. Navalny’s death, even the slightest chance of political resistance within Russia is likely now extinguished.
This suggests that the possibility of change in Russia now depends on external influences. Ironically, Russia’s best hope for a free future is Ukraine. For Western countries, Navalny’s death may be the final wake-up call before it is too late. Time is running out to help Ukraine.During debate in the US Congress On the latest aid package The EU is reluctant to prioritize production for its own military industry, and President Putin has devised his most ominous plan yet. Western countries must prepare for the post-election of President Putin, an unbridled autocrat determined to achieve his goals at all costs.
-
Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? Click here if you would like to email your answer of up to 300 words to be considered for publication in our email section.
