The only safe bet in politics last year was that Donald Trump would lead in the Republican presidential primary.
The former president started 2023 with the support of: 43% It reduced the number of Republican primary voters and ended the race after several well-known and well-funded challengers entered the race. 69%.
He maintained his leadership position in Iowa (52% recently; 34 points Reid) and South Carolina (53%; 31 points lead). Trump's lead in New Hampshire is even more in doubt, with two polls released this morning showing Trump with a 19-point lead at 46%.suffolk), 39% with a 7 point lead (UNH).
Most importantly, Trump's criminal case will only strengthen his support.
'Trump fear': crushing Biden's campaign message
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If nothing changes between now and March, when voters across the country win the majority of delegates to choose the Republican presidential nominee, there is a strong chance that Trump will secure the nomination.
There are three people who could stand in the way of that outcome: Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Trump himself.
To make this race competitive, each of these candidates must make news that will cause primary voters to review and reconsider their choices.
For Haley and DeSantis, that means very strong performances early on. These rankings have swapped places, but both remain far behind Mr. Trump due to the difficulty of pulling it off.
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Trump is even less likely to anger his supporters or withdraw from the race.
No voting has taken place. Any of these scenarios can occur. But none of those are safe bets.
1. Trump: He will have to anger his supporters, lose the voting battle, or walk out.
Trump's huge lead in the polls only tells half the story.
The former president has a sophisticated voting campaign. In Iowa, the project will be led by 1,800 “caucus captains” who are loyal Trump supporters, who will each lead 10 first-time caucus-goers to attend caucus night. are instructed to do so.
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He continues to lead the field in small donations, a key indicator of grassroots enthusiasm.
Mr. Trump also has the support of more than 100 current House members and 19 senators, nearly half of all Republicans in Congress.
All of these factors make Trump's nomination the most likely outcome. Mr. Trump has been ranked No. 1 as the “most likely candidate” in the rankings since the rankings began in August, and he has maintained that position this time as well.
For Mr. Trump to lose his position, he would have to either deeply anger his supporters or drop out of the race.
The 45th president's supporters have supported him for nine years, and being “deeply offended” means that they are not aware of anything that makes them question whether President Trump respects them, or that there is no definitive answer. It would have to involve a personal scandal with evidence.
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as a single voter Said A reporter at last year's Iowa rally said, “For Mr. Trump not to be my boyfriend, it would have to be a video of him panting a baby.”
Trump is finding It remains on the primary and general election ballots in Colorado and Maine after successful 14th Amendment challenges at the state level in Colorado and Maine.
Last week, the Supreme Court agreed to take up the case. If Trump loses there, it will be impossible for Trump to win in 2024, and this election campaign will be turned upside down.
Alternatively, Trump could withdraw from the primary race. That's the least likely.
Keep in mind that while the former president is in a strong position, he may underperform compared to polls. Despite his campaign's focus on attracting his most fervent supporters, his lead is so large that it could depress turnout.
The former president himself acknowledged that, telling supporters in Iowa last month: “Don't sit at home and say, 'I think I'm going to take it easy.' Something terrible could happen.”
2. Haley: Must win New Hampshire.
Ms. Haley has made small gains in the polls and has deep-pocketed donors on her side, but she must prove she can seriously compete against Mr. Trump by Super Tuesday.
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Her only chance is a clear victory in New Hampshire.
we knew we were going to this race What the Republicans have 3 camps:
- Pro-Trump (37%)
- Persuasive voters like Trump but are open to others (37%)
- and non-Trump voters (25%).
Among the final group were those who never liked President Trump or the MAGA movement. Others supported his administration and agreed with some or most of his policies, but may want to move forward in 2024.
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Ms. Haley was already well-positioned to win over these voters because of her long standing as an establishment Republican and her policies to match.
Her clash in a debate with establishment counterpart Ramaswamy strengthened her ties with the group.
The good news for Haley is that New Hampshire is home to more of these non-Trump voters than any other early state.
Thirty-four percent of Republican voters said they had an unfavorable view of him in November's election. investigationand has a weaker lead here than in other early states.
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The Granite State also allows “undeclared” voters to participate in partisan primaries. In fact, they are the state's largest voting bloc.
This means that at least some Democratic and independent anti-Trump voters will play a role in determining the Republican winner.
The former governor is already competitive in the state.a recent polls There is a 22 point difference with President Trump, 42 to 20%.
She also has support from the state's popular center-right governor, Chris Sununu, who has said he hopes Haley will win in a “landslide.”
Haley also has a lot of money. In her campaign, Spent It invested $26 million in advertising in New Hampshire to garner support from Americans for Prosperity Action, an advocacy group backed by billionaire Charles Koch.
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There are still obstacles. Chris Christie is polling in double digits in the state and is likely to take at least some votes away from Haley. And it's not yet clear whether her remarks about the Civil War will hurt polls.
In any case, a decisive victory on election day will be important. This is the only result that will make voters in the rest of the country reconsider her candidacy.
Still, convincing these voters to leave Mr. Trump is a steep mountain.
(Remember, New Hampshire's average primary voter looks different than voters in other states.)
However, Haley showed promise here and has moved up to second place in the rankings.
a Finished 2nd in Iowa It would also be a huge help to the former governor and could change the shape of the entire campaign.
3. DeSantis: Must significantly exceed expectations at Iowa State.
Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa, where voters are more representative of the overall Republican base. If Mr. DeSantis can perform well against the former president, it will be enough to prove he is the candidate.
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But Mr. DeSantis has poured most of his resources into the state, and now it's on the brink of do-or-die. Unless he significantly outperforms the caucus polls on caucus night, his campaign will be over.
DeSantis denies rumors he will withdraw from presidential race after caucuses, 'complete lie'
Mr. DeSantis' strategy was to separate pro-Trump voters from persuasive voters. As his campaign has shown, that's difficult to accomplish when a former president is also in the race.
He launched a campaign to appeal to MAGA votes by slamming woke politics, but that strategy fizzled when Trump said he didn't like the term or didn't know how to define it. Became.
He has recently run to the right of the former president on social issues, convincing voters that he is a pragmatic choice.
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Running as a more conservative alternative has led to some victories for DeSantis. DeSantis won the support of current Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has represented him across the state.
He also received the support of evangelical political activist Bob Vander Plaats, one of the powerful forces behind Ted Cruz's 2016 victory in Iowa.
And DeSantis has a strong ground operation backing him up. Never Back Down, the super PAC supporting his campaign, says it has knocked on more than 878,000 doors in Iowa, more than any other campaign has disclosed.
Still, the Florida governor is trailing in the low 10s in Iowa polls. Most recently, he received an 18% backing on Fox Business. investigationThis came in second place behind Trump at 52%.
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It came after DeSantis completed a 99-county tour of the Hawkeye State.
To turn the tide, he will need to surprise voters on caucus night with a percentage that is at least close to Trump's.
Meanwhile, Mr. DeSantis is struggling with weak national polls and questions about his campaign's long-term financial health.
He rose to third place in this ranking.
4. Christie and Ramaswamy: We need to widen the lanes.
Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy are diametrically opposed candidates with the same campaign strategy of finding and dominating a niche lane in the primary.
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Christie is an “anti-Trump” advocate. Some Republican voters have always opposed President Trump and the MAGA movement. Others, including Christie himself, are former supporters who are now outraged by his rhetoric and conduct, especially in the run-up to January 6.
Vivek Ramaswamy says there are only two presidential candidates who will put 'America first'
In New Hampshire, where Mr. Christie has spent nearly all his resources, the former governor is third. and 14%. If that happens, having some delegates on January 23rd will be enough.
Ramaswami occupies the “MAGA+” lane. As the former biotech entrepreneur told Fox's Sandra Smith last year, he believes Ramaswamy can “push America First even further than Donald Trump.”
Given Trump's popularity, it's not surprising that there is room for candidates who want to further his ideology. At the same time, Trump is also in this race, so the ceiling for his strategy is low.
Ramaswamy has taken Iowa hard in recent months, with the latest FOX Business poll showing him at 7%. investigation.
Both candidates need to widen their lanes to shake up the entire race. Neither has yet shown that they can do that.
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So far, Mr. Christie's polls in New Hampshire are on average better than Mr. Ramaswamy's polls in Iowa, so the two candidates will swap places in those rankings for fourth and fifth place.
Notes on minor candidates
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and businessman Ryan Binkley are still in the race, but they cannot win.
They don't appear on every state's ballot, and their turnout is between 0 and 1%, so it's very unlikely they'll reach the threshold of winning delegates in many other states. .
It will no longer appear in these rankings.
Also gone are Tim Scott and Doug Burgum, who withdrew from the race last year.
Countdown to caucus
Voters will award the first delegates for the Republican nomination next Monday during the Iowa caucuses.
Republican candidates in the second presidential debate. (Fox News)
This Saturday, special coverage begins on Fox News on Cub Tribe in Iowa.Stay tuned for a special edition on Sunday american newsroom, fox news sunday, story, your worldand special report From Des Moines.
Election Day begins on fox & friends, There will be live coverage from reporters on the ground throughout the day before the caucus convenes at 8 p.m. ET.
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Stay tuned throughout the night for Fox News voter analysis and exclusive insights from the Fox News Decision Desk that will decide the race.
And at 10pm ET, enjoy special coverage from Brett Baier and Martha McCallum.
