Iran’s Threat to Close the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has issued a warning that it may attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz as tensions rise following recent US strikes on its nuclear facilities. The implications of this could be significant, especially given the strait’s role in transporting oil and gas.
The Iranian government is reportedly discussing possible retaliatory measures, which could include using mines or missiles to obstruct maritime traffic. State media have indicated that while a plan exists, it requires the approval of Iran’s highest security council before any actions can be taken.
About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Notably, the strait is narrow—at its tightest, it measures less than 30 miles wide—making any blockage particularly impactful.
In a recent report, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) noted that oil flow through the strait was significant in the first quarter of 2025, with daily averages around 2 million barrels. This corridor is crucial, accounting for a quarter of global sea-borne oil trade and a significant portion of the world’s liquefied natural gas as well.
The EIA estimates that around 84% of crude oil and condensate passing through the Strait is directed towards the Asian market. Countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea are major recipients, and any disruption could severely impact these economies.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged nations like China to discourage Tehran from following through with any plans to close the passage. He emphasized the dire economic consequences that could result, particularly for China, which heavily relies on oil transported through the strait.
As the situation develops, US naval presence has increased in the region, with two carrier strike groups deployed. Rubio stated that the advancements we made through recent strikes against Iranian targets were focused and deliberate—meant to convey resolve. “What happens next depends on their response,” he added, indicating that negotiations could be a path forward, but warned of serious repercussions if dangerous actions were pursued.
