No one really wants to cheer for a team that flops, especially when it comes to the NFL Draft. Success in the league often hinges on how well teams perform in the draft. It’s not just about grabbing Pro Bowl talent in the first round; it’s also crucial to snag solid starters in the later rounds. Missing out on these opportunities feels like a wasted chance, and having too many draft picks can sometimes hurt a team’s standings.
The term “bust” gets thrown around a lot, particularly when discussing skill position players. We all recognize the name “JaMarcus Russell,” but what about someone like defensive tackle Justin Harrell, who was picked 16th overall? Harrell only started two games and racked up a mere 27 tackles over three seasons before leaving the league. Comparatively speaking, he didn’t measure up to Russell, yet he’s often forgotten. Sure, he was traded to the Packers, but he was still, without a doubt, a bust.
This got me curious about the first-round data from the NFL Draft over the past 15 years. I wanted to see how various positions performed—who hit, who missed, and everything in between. The idea was to identify which positions were more reliable, had longer careers, and tended to be more successful overall.
There’s no perfect way to gauge a player’s entire career. However, one of the best tools we have might be the “approximate value (AV)” statistic from Pro Football Reference. It employs a complex formula to measure a player’s impact throughout their career. You can also assess draft AV, which indicates the value a player adds to the team that selected them. This helps to clarify situations like those of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield—players who floundered with their original teams but found success later. It’s a way to evaluate if a drafted player fits the team’s needs.
The final component is the average AV, which excludes the top and bottom 5% of players to avoid skewing results with outliers like Patrick Mahomes. There’s also the Pro Bowl Threshold AV, which reflects the average AV of a typical Pro Bowler at each position. This gives a reasonable baseline since AV isn’t designed for direct position comparisons.
When considering the risk of a draft choice, you need to focus on two key components: the average AV for that position and how it measures up against Pro Bowl standards. This insight reveals both the likelihood of landing a bust and the chances of acquiring a Pro Bowl-caliber player.
Take, for example, linebackers. The average first-round linebacker is just about at the Pro Bowl threshold, making this a relatively safe choice. Although the value of box linebackers in today’s NFL can be debated, the statistics back up the idea that picking a linebacker in the first round is likely to yield good results.
In contrast, wide receivers present a much riskier landscape. This position sees one of the lowest success rates when it comes to long-term value, with less than a third of first-rounders making it to Pro Bowl status. Quarterbacks and edge rushers are similarly tricky, with not even half of those picked in the first round achieving Pro Bowl caliber down the line.
Interestingly, cornerbacks seem to stand out in a positive light. First-round cornerbacks have a relatively high success rate for becoming Pro Bowl talents, yet overall, their career values aren’t as strong as some other positions. Corners tend to show a narrower range of high-level performance, which is worth exploring further, though this data doesn’t precisely detail career longevity.
One significant takeaway from all this data, echoed by observations around the NFL, is that if you’re trying to build a team from scratch, starting with linemen—both on offense and defense—is a smart strategy. These players generally have higher hit rates and lay the essential groundwork for a team. In contrast, if a team is struggling, relying on a wide receiver or quarterback to turn things around without the necessary foundational pieces can lead to more failed attempts, delaying improvement even further.
Despite where we stand today, the NFL Draft is still a mixed bag. The data reflects historical trends, but skilled front offices and scouting teams can defy those odds, consistently finding effective players and creating successful franchises.
