Several Democrats could be chosen to replace President Biden after concerns about his mental health were raised during Thursday’s presidential debate, but the process will be difficult and full of twists and turns.
Even people close to the 81-year-old president have publicly expressed concern about Biden’s performance against President Donald Trump, based on his tweets, freezing posture, facial expressions, coughs and occasionally incoherent arguments.
With just over four months to go until the election, the Democratic Party’s fate depends in large part on whether Biden remains in the race, whether delegates who pledged their support for him at the Democratic National Convention in August pledge their loyalty to him, and whether the DNC decides to rewrite the convention rules.
Depending on the circumstances, it’s still possible that a few prominent Democrats could be selected as the Democratic nominee.
Others at the top of the list include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and former first lady Michelle Obama.
But there may be even more.
A recent Politico poll found that a majority of voters, 21%, think Harris should be the nominee in 2028. Ten percent feel the same about Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and an overwhelming 41% say they don’t know who would be the best candidate to replace Biden in the next election.
Kamala Harris
The presidential campaign has stressed that Biden is still campaigning, but if he does decide to step down, he won’t be able to easily choose a successor. It will be up to the Democratic National Committee to choose a new presidential and vice presidential candidate.
Harris is seen as a good choice given her closeness to Biden, but she would likely suffer from low approval ratings.
According to FiveThirtyEight, her average disapproval rating is 39.4%.
And despite a Politico poll showing Harris as the leading candidate for the 2028 presidential election, only 34% of respondents said it was “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that she would win the general election, while 57% said it was “not very likely” or “not at all likely.”
Following the debate, Harris’ chances of becoming the party’s presidential nominee increased by 900 points, while Biden’s chances fell by 250 points, according to BetOnline.
Gavin Newsom
The California governor has been one of Biden’s most vocal supporters in the 2024 election, even attending Republican primary debates to support the president.
Newsom was also Biden’s biggest ally in the post-debate spin room with reporters, appearing in the hours before the showdown to hammer home Democratic talking points.
After the debate, Newsom told MSNBC that “panic” about Biden’s performance was “unnecessary” and that “we have to support this president.”
He said he plans to “stand up” for the president at this point and is not focused on the debate.
Betting odds on Newsom becoming the nominee rose after the debate, increasing his chances by 300 points, according to BetOnline.
Michelle Obama
The former first lady has remained largely out of politics since leaving the White House with former President Barack Obama in 2016.
But that hasn’t stopped Democrats from supporting her as a possible candidate for the next presidential term.
After the debate on BetOnline, her odds of winning increased by 850 points.
JB Pritzker
Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist and expert on convention rules, said Pritzker’s billionaire net worth gives him the easiest campaigning experience, and his self-financed campaign could help him appeal to voters in the short term.
“Procedurally, a contested convention would be straightforward and easy to achieve, whether by rejecting or amending the proposed rules or suspending them, but it would almost certainly devolve into a civil war among the various interests that make up the Democratic Party today,” Lennox told the Post.
“Convention host Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is the obvious choice. He doesn’t have the baggage of Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom. Plus, the billionaire could raise money overnight and buy the nomination, avoiding a civil war on the convention floor,” he added.
“Obviously, Newsom or Maryland Gov. Wes Moore or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro couldn’t self-fund it, so I support Biden, because even if he loses to Trump, he’s still viable for the 2028 campaign, which starts the day after November,” the Republican pundit said.
The odds on BetOnline that Pritzker will be the nominee have risen by 7,500 points.
Gretchen Whitmer
The Michigan governor has quickly risen to become a prominent leader in the Democratic Party.
She has been frequently mentioned in online discussions about who might replace Biden and launched a national political group last year to raise her profile.
Whitmer, Harris, Newsom and Pritzker have not publicly announced their intentions to run against Biden and all voiced their support for him after the debate.
After the debate, BetOnline’s odds of Whitmer becoming the nominee rose by 1,800 points.
Meanwhile, Trump aides stressed after the debate that Biden is the nominee and disputed claims of a possible switch.
Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump said Republican leaders were “hopeful” that Biden would attend the second debate, scheduled for September 10, to give voters more of a chance to “compare the two candidates.”
“If I had failed in this debate, I would have wanted to make up for it in the second debate,” said Dr. Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon and former candidate in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
“But by the same token, I was afraid I would make things worse,” he told the Post.
“Joe Biden will be running in November’s election,” said upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).
“We are going to defeat Joe Biden. Democrats are desperate because they know what a disaster it has been.”
Top Trump adviser Chris LaCivita also poured cold water on the possibility of Biden replacing him, saying “the only way that’s going to happen is if Joe Biden himself voluntarily steps aside,” adding that he was “expectant” that Biden would attend the Sept. 10 debate.
Biden’s campaign responded to a Washington Post inquiry about whether Biden was considering withdrawing by saying “no.”
