Over five months into the conflict, tensions between the United States and Iran remain high, and it seems the number of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly lower than usual. According to data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), even though there was a slight uptick in traffic in late June, the overall ship movement continues to be markedly reduced.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) noted that many operators are opting for alternate routes due to safety concerns, frequent incidents involving aerial attacks, and heightened enforcement in the region. Specifically, AIS data indicates that maritime traffic is running about 90% below the pre-conflict levels.
A recent report by Kpler provided insights, revealing that there was some recovery in traffic, with 13 confirmed vessel transits noted on August 13, which is a 44% increase from the previous count of nine ships. However, it was mentioned that none of these vessels were confirmed to be within the designated safety area of the Strait.
John Staupert, who heads the International Chamber of Shipping’s maritime bureau, pointed out that while there’s been a substantial drop in traffic since before the war began, it hasn’t completely ceased. He suggested that we might see a rise in shipping activity if a ceasefire is established, but any breakdown of that ceasefire would likely lead to a decline again.
He further highlighted the lingering threat posed by mines in the area, complicating navigation in and out of the Persian Gulf.
In a statement reflecting U.S. positions, President Donald Trump asserted that the U.S. has full control over the Strait of Hormuz. He described the naval blockade as a “wall of steel” that Iran cannot breach, emphasizing Iran’s lack of military capacity and financial resources. He noted that the nation is struggling economically, which he believes diminishes its influence.
In contrast, Iran’s leadership maintains that the situation is quite different. They contend that the Strait remains effectively closed to U.S. interests and will not reopen until their demands are met. Iranian Foreign Minister Seid Abbas Araghchi criticized U.S. intelligence and its understanding of the conflict, claiming long-standing miscalculations regarding Iran’s capabilities.
The newly appointed leader of the Basij, an Iranian paramilitary organization, reinforced the viewpoint that Iran has control over specific routes within the Strait, asserting that the U.S. presence primarily oversees southern passages adjacent to Oman.
Days later, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright remarked on oil flow levels, highlighting the successful transit of crude oil, which has recently averaged approximately 9 million barrels per day from the Strait. He noted improvements in pipeline and export facilities contributing to a total of around 15 million barrels leaving the region daily.
Staupert added that while commodity flows might seem to recover, the human risk associated with maritime navigation remains a critical concern, calling for an urgent focus on humanitarian outcomes to resolve the conflict. The White House has yet to respond to requests for comments regarding these developments.
