A week after Japan braced for a possible massive earthquake, the biggest major change came at the heart of politics, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announcing his intention to step down next month.
His three-year term ends at the end of September, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] A new president will be elected and surely approved by the Liberal Democratic Party-controlled Diet as Japan’s next prime minister.
Kishida’s decision paved the way for one of the most unpredictable LDP presidential elections in recent years.
“Kishida’s withdrawal from the race paves the way for a particularly chaotic LDP leadership election, turning what was already looking like a tight contest with a vulnerable incumbent into a crowded field with a number of strong candidates but no clear favorite,” said Tobias Harris, founder of political risk advisory firm Japan Foresight.
Potential successors include party insiders, maverick ministers and, unusually for Japan, two Diet members under the age of 50. Two women are likely, but at this stage seem unlikely, and could lead to Japan’s first female prime minister.
For the LDP, a loose coalition of conservatives that has governed Japan almost uninterruptedly since its formation in the mid-1950s, it is only natural that the outcome of this party election, coming at a highly uncertain time, is highly difficult to predict.
Kishida’s withdrawal from the election was cited as the fallout from a series of scandals that marred much of his term as prime minister, including the revelation of the party’s ties to the Unification Church following the assassination of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022, and more recently public anger over a fundraising scandal that signaled the beginning of the end of Kishida’s tenure.
The LDP at least has time: The next leader’s top priority will be to regain public trust before the next House of Representatives election, which isn’t due to be held until October next year. His successor will also have to deal with the rising cost of living, rising tensions with China and North Korea, and the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency.
“If the LDP ignores public criticism over the political funding scandal and chooses its next president, it risks suffering a crushing defeat,” said political analyst Atsuo Ito. “They must choose a young person who has no ties to the current administration and can embody a new LDP.”
Ito said that would remove Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu from the running, given his involvement in factional maneuvering that is alienating voters.
The party’s fate could hinge on Shigeru Ishiba, also in his 60s. A former defense minister who has announced his intention to run, Ishiba has tried unsuccessfully for leadership four times but has consistently enjoyed strong approval ratings. It should not be too difficult to secure the support of the 20 lawmakers needed to run in an election decided among the party’s 1.1 million members.
Ishiba could face challenges from fellow moderate Digital Affairs Minister Taro Kono and Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
What’s even more interesting is the possible inclusion of two women.
Economic and Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is a darling of the party’s right wing and on Thursday demonstrated her conservative credentials by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead and is seen by some as a symbol of the country’s militaristic past.
Despite his recent troubles, Kishida could still have a say in who his successor is, especially if he supports another candidate: Yoko Kamikawa, whom he appointed last year as Japan’s first female foreign minister in nearly two decades.
“The next president of the LDP must be someone who can unite the party and run the government,” said Mikitaka Masuyama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. “Someone with experience is better than someone who is popular in opinion polls. If Kishida chooses Kamikawa, and other members of the LDP join him, she may be the right candidate.”
This week, Prime Minister Kishida hosted Japan’s medallists from the Paris Olympics, giving them at least a little respite. To the official residenceThe prime minister said they had “injected energy and courage into the whole nation”, but it will be up to his successor to inject those same qualities into his embattled party.
